title: Forecasts of active life expectancy: policy and fiscal implications.
abstract: Age-related changes in functional status can be summarized by active life expectancy (ALE) measures. ALE is useful in assessing efforts to improve function and in determining a population's service needs. ALE disaggregates total life expectancy (TLE) into components representing degree and type of impairment. We illustrate the calculation of two ALE measures and their relations to health inputs and service use. First, scores are calculated from 27 measures of function for persons 65 and over, as reported in the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS). The scores are then used to calculate the two ALE measures. Results are compared to ALE calculated from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 NLTCS.
authors.affiliation: Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University.
authors.forename: K G
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Manton
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Stallard
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002908:Chronic Disease; D015331:Cohort Studies; D015897:Comorbidity; D006233:Persons with Disabilities; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D016330:Frail Elderly; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006291:Health Policy / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D007326:Institutionalization; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends; D015993:Life Tables; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D016014:Linear Models; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality; D015995:Prevalence; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012737:Sex Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology