Exploring the limits of optimism: the case of smokers' decision making.
Smokers consider themselves less likely than others to contract smoking-associated diseases. This result has been interpreted as a weak form of irrationality. Alternatively, it can be interpreted as indicating that smokers show an optimism bias. The optimism explanation was examined by having smokers and non-smokers rate the likelihood of future negative events falling into three categories: (1) smoking associated, (2) health related and (3) health unrelated. Subjects rated their likelihood of the event happening to (1) themselves, (2) the average smoker and (3) the average non-smoker. Smokers and non-smokers rated their own likelihood of negative events as less than for the average smoker and the average non-smoker. But, while smokers rated their own risk as higher for both smoking-associated and other health-related problems, they rated their own risk as lower than the average smoker, a standard optimism bias.
McKenna
F P
FP
Department of Psychology, University of Reading, Whiteknights, UK.
Warburton
D M
DM
Winwood
M
M
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001294:Attitude to Health; D003657:Decision Making; D003674:Defense Mechanisms; D005260:Female; D007722:Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice; D006801:Humans; D008016:Life Change Events; D008297:Male; D010555:Personality Inventory; D012309:Risk-Taking; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000523:psychology