title: Effects of lead time, length bias, and false-negative assurance on screening for breast cancer.
abstract: This article presents a model of breast cancer screening programs. The model shows the effects of the screening threshold, screen sensitivity, and false-negative assurance on the cumulative mortality rate in the screened population. It shows that factors of screen design and a penalty associated with false-negative assurance can result in excess mortality rates in screened populations--especially in those age classes in which the incidence of rapidly growing tumors is high. Factors related to the magnitude of this effect are described.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Ohio.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Pelikan
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Moskowitz
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality; D005188:False Negative Reactions; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013997:Time Factors