title: The longterm prognosis of lupus nephritis: the impact of disease activity.
abstract: An inception cohort of 87 patients with lupus nephritis was evaluated using a classification tree regression technique. Four relevant outcomes were studied: (1) renal insufficiency (serum creatinine > 5.0 mg/dl); (2) renal failure; (3) death due to renal involvement; and (4) any death due to systemic lupus erythematosus. All 4 outcomes could be predicted by one or more renal severity measures (serum creatinine, 24-h urinary protein excretion, nephrotic syndrome, or duration of prior renal disease), and among those with nonsevere renal disease, with a single disease activity measure (the National Institutes of Health or le Riche index). In general 3 prognostic groups (high, intermediate and low risk) could be identified for each outcome. Our results demonstrate the value of regression tree techniques in studies of prognosis and are compatible with a hypothesis of the interaction of disease activity with organ damage in lupus nephritis.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Montreal General Hospital, PQ, Canada.
authors.forename: J R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Goulet
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: MacKenzie
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Levinton
authors.forename: J P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Hayslett
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ciampi
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Esdaile
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007676:Kidney Failure, Chronic / Q000209:etiology; D008181:Lupus Nephritis / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology*; D008297:Male; D009404:Nephrotic Syndrome / Q000150:complications; D011379:Prognosis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors