title: High risk of progression to NIDDM in South-African Indians with impaired glucose tolerance.
abstract: A four-yr prospective study was undertaken to examine the natural history of IGT in 128 South-African Indians classified as such at year 0 of the study, based on WHO criteria. Subjects were reexamined at year 1 and year 4. Of the 113 subjects who completed the study, 50.4% progressed to NIDDM (rate of progression 12.6%/yr), 24.8% persisted with IGT, and 24.8%, reverted to NGT. The majority (72%) who progressed to NIDDM did so in year 1. At year 1, 47 subjects were still classified as IGT; of the 40 subjects completing the study, 16 subjects (40%) progressed to NIDDM, 17 subjects (42.5%) persisted with IGT, and 7 subjects (17.5%) reverted to NGT. Examination of risk factors predictive of subsequent progression to NIDDM was undertaken by analysis of baseline variables in two ways: When year 0 was used as baseline (in 113 IGT0 subjects), significant predictive risk factors were the FPG and 2-h plasma glucose concentrations. All subjects who at year 0 had 2-h plasma glucose > or = 10.2 and < 11.1 mM or FPG > or = 7.3 but < 7.8 mM, subsequently progressed to NIDDM. When year 1 was used as baseline (40 IGT1 subjects), 90-min plasma glucose concentration (midtest level) was found to be a significant risk factor for development of NIDDM. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that in South-African Indians with IGT, the majority (50.4%) progress to NIDDM within 4 yr; significant predictors of subsequent diabetes are the baseline fasting and 2-h plasma glucose concentration.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, University of Natal, Congella, South Africa.
authors.forename: A A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Motala
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Omar
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Gouws
mesh_terms: D000704:Analysis of Variance; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism; D002784:Cholesterol / Q000097:blood; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000235:genetics; D005006:Ethnicity; D005215:Fasting; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000032:analysis; D006801:Humans; D006943:Hyperglycemia / Q000503:physiopathology*; D007194:India / Q000208:ethnology; D007328:Insulin / Q000097:blood; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009679:Nuclear Family; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D013019:South Africa; D013997:Time Factors; D014280:Triglycerides / Q000097:blood; D014527:Uric Acid / Q000097:blood
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D002784:Cholesterol; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin; D007328:Insulin; D014280:Triglycerides; D014527:Uric Acid