A method for identifying persons at high risk for sexually transmitted infections: opportunity for targeting intervention.
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study was to develop a method to identify persons at high risk for acquiring new sexually transmitted infections.


METHODS
Computerized medical records from sexually transmitted disease clinics in Dade County, Florida, were used to conduct a retrospective cohort study. For all patients who visited in 1987, risk factors were identified for returning to the clinics within a year with a new sexually transmitted infection. Predictor variables were derived from the index visit and any visits in the year prior to the index visit. Logistic regression was used to develop a model that was applied to all patients who attended in 1989.


RESULTS
Of 24,439 patients attending in 1987, 18.5% returned within a year with a new infection. Return rates were highest for 15- to 19-year-old Black males (31.8%). The highest odds ratios for returning were a diagnosis or treatment for an infection in the previous year and a diagnosis or treatment for infection at the index visit. The patients predicted to be at highest risk had a 39% return rate. There were as many new infections among the 2893 patients at highest risk as there were among the 13,326 patients at lowest risk.


CONCLUSIONS
We developed a model that identifies persons at very high risk for sexually transmitted infection. These persons should be targeted for intensive intervention to reduce their risk.
Richert
C A
CA
Division of STD/HIV Prevention, National Center for Prevention Services, Atlanta, Ga. 30333.
Peterman
T A
TA
Zaidi
A A
AA
Ransom
R L
RL
Wroten
J E
JE
Witte
J J
JJ
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000554:Ambulatory Care Facilities; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005431:Florida / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000592:standards; D016347:Medical Records Systems, Computerized; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D044469:Racial Groups; D012008:Recurrence; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012621:Seasons; D012737:Sex Factors; D012749:Sexually Transmitted Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control