Survival experience of 789 children with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.
To define predictors of survival we studied longitudinal histories of 789 New York State Medicaid-enrolled children diagnosed with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) from 1983 to 1989 and followed through 1990. Median survival times for 3 severity groups of AIDS-defining conditions were 66, 48 and 9 months. In a proportional hazards model, the relative risk of death for the most vs. least severe group was 3.33 (95% confidence interval, 2.53, 4.37) and the relative risk for children < 6 months old at diagnosis vs. older children was 1.81 (95% confidence interval, 1.41, 2.34). We increased our ability to predict death by using a 4-category severity index that assesses both the AIDS-defining diagnosis and clinical complications within 3 months of diagnosis (relative risk, 5.27; 95% confidence interval, 3.16, 8.78 for most vs. least severe). These analyses offer new clinical severity measures and reveal that, regardless of the AIDS-defining diagnosis, children with AIDS who are < 6 months old have a poor prognosis.
Turner
B J
BJ
Center for Research in Medical Education and Health Care, Jefferson Medical College.
Denison
M
M
Eppes
S C
SC
Houchens
R
R
Fanning
T
T
Markson
L E
LE
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D008484:Medicaid; D009518:New York / Q000453:epidemiology; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D015996:Survival Rate; D014481:United States