Mechanistic modelling and risk assessment.
Risk Assessment in the United States has been rapidly changing over the last few years. The historical methods and endpoints by which risk estimates were derived are gradually being replaced by newer methods and a broader spectrum of endpoints. For carcinogenic risk assessment, there is movement from the routinely used "linearized multistage model" for low dose risk estimation to methodology which is more deeply rooted in carcinogenic mechanisms and which allows the incorporation of additional data into the estimation of risks in a direct, quantitative fashion. There is also a determined effort under way to develop methods for assessing risks from exposure based on other endpoints such as effects on the immune system and the reproductive system. This paper briefly discusses some of the statistical and mathematical issues which will play important roles in determining the utility and precision of these new methods for estimating risks from environmental exposures.
Portier
C J
CJ
Risk Methodology Section, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27709.
D000818:Animals; D015197:Carcinogenicity Tests; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000139:chemically induced*; D012306:Risk; D014481:United States