Estimating the seroincidence of HIV-1 in the general adult population in Kigali, Rwanda.
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the seroincidence of HIV-1 infection in the general adult population of Kigali, Rwanda.


METHODS
Repeated standardized cross-sectional studies.


METHODS
Two urban prenatal clinics.


METHODS
A total of 4486 consecutive pregnant women consulting in 1989 and 1990.


METHODS
Prevalence of HIV-1 antibodies.


RESULTS
HIV seropositivity increased by 3-5% annually over this period, indicating that it has not reached a plateau in this sentinel population. The percentage infection rates, calculated using two complementary methods, were 26.2-30.7% in 1990. Extrapolating these results to the general population of Kigali, we estimate that 2300-3800 new infections in young women and 3600-6100 new infections in young men occur annually among the total population of 350,000 in Kigali.


CONCLUSIONS
A new HIV infection occurred in an adult every 50-90 min, on average, in Kigali during 1989-1990, while every 6-7 h a baby with maternally acquired HIV infection was born. Our HIV surveillance system, which is based on prenatal sentinel posts, is a useful tool for monitoring the progression of the HIV epidemic in Kigali.
Bucyendore
A
A
Rwanda National AIDS Control Program, Ministry of Health, Kigali.
Van de Perre
P
P
Karita
E
E
Nziyumvira
A
A
Sow
I
I
Fox
E
E
D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D015528:HIV Seroprevalence; D015497:HIV-1; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008431:Maternal-Fetal Exchange; D011247:Pregnancy; D011251:Pregnancy Complications, Infectious / Q000453:epidemiology; D012432:Rwanda / Q000453:epidemiology