How many physicians will be needed to provide medical care for older persons? Physician manpower needs for the twenty-first century.
To estimate the number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) physicians and geriatricians needed to provide medical care in the years 2000 to 2030, we developed utilization-based models of need for non-surgical physicians and need for geriatricians. Based on projected utilization, the number of FTE physicians required to care for the elderly will increase two- or threefold over the next 40 years. Alternate economic scenarios have very little effect on estimates of FTE physicians needed but exert large effects on the projected number of FTE geriatricians needed. We conclude that during the years 2000 to 2030, population growth will be the major factor determining the number of physicians needed to provide medicare care; economic forces will have a greater influence on the number of geriatricians needed.
Reuben
D B
DB
Multicampus Program in Geriatric Medicine and Gerontology, UCLA School of Medicine 90024-1687.
Zwanziger
J
J
Bradley
T B
TB
Fink
A
A
Hirsch
S H
SH
Williams
A P
AP
Solomon
D H
DH
Beck
J C
JC
D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003253:Consultants / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004467:Economics / Q000639:trends; D004470:Economics, Medical; D005194:Family Practice / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D005544:Forecasting; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D005853:Geriatrics / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*; D006280:Health Workforce; D006801:Humans; D007326:Institutionalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D007388:Internal Medicine / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D006278:Medicare / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D008511:Medicine / Q000639:trends; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D013038:Specialization; D014481:United States; D016526:Workload / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data