Markov chain modelling of bioassay toxicity procedures.
Many bioassay procedures to test a new substance for toxicity, like some phase I clinical trials, can be modelled as first-order Markov chains with absorbing states. We provide a general framework for such procedures. We show how one may calculate under any dose response curve assumption final absorption probabilities, and a number of total average costs such as time required until trial completion, number of subjects treated, number of subjects exhibiting unacceptable levels of toxicity, and amount of medication administered. One may use the above information associated with the trial for an a priori comparison between competing designs under consideration. We provide an example of such a comparison.
Department of Decision Systems, University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90089-1421.
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Hadjinicola
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Goldstein
D001681:Biological Assay; D017321:Clinical Trials, Phase I as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004305:Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; D064420:Drug-Related Side Effects and Adverse Reactions; D006801:Humans; D008390:Markov Chains; D015233:Models, Statistical