Parameter sensitivity of a model of viral epidemics simulated with Monte Carlo techniques. II. Durations and peaks.
This is the second of a series of papers concerning sensitivity analyses of stochastic micropopulation models. A model of epidemic spread of viral infection is used in the series to illustrate the principles and performance of the sensitivity analysis system. For these studies the analysis system now known as SENSEN was redesigned; it can be used with any specialization of the SUMMERS simulation shell. Previous applications of SENSEN and its predecessors studied the sensitivity simultaneously to at most six input parameters. The applicability of SENSEN when twelve input parameters are selected is illustrated by sensitivity analyses of epidemic durations. A time-related output, day of the epidemic at which the peak number of cases are present, is also studied.
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 55455.
J Z
JZ
Ma
E
E
Ackerman
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D004777:Environment; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011153:Population; D011336:Probability; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D013997:Time Factors; D014777:Virus Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission