Estimated effects of reducing dietary saturated fat intake on the incidence and costs of coronary heart disease in the United States.
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the effects of reducing dietary saturated fat intake on the incidence and economic costs of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the United States.


METHODS
Modeling techniques and data from secondary sources, including the Framingham Heart Study and the second and third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, were used to estimate the effects on CHD incidence and associated costs of reducing dietary saturated fat intake as a percent of total energy by one to three percentage points.


METHODS
Persons aged 35 to 69 years who have total cholesterol levels of 5.17 mmol/L or higher and are currently free of CHD.


RESULTS
Approximately 3 million first-time coronary events are estimated to occur over a 10-year period among persons with total cholesterol levels exceeding 5.17 mmol/L. Reducing saturated fat intake by one to three percentage points would reduce CHD incidence by 32,000 to 99,700 events and yield combined savings in medical expenditures and lost earnings ranging from $4.1 to $12.7 billion over 10 years (estimates in 1993 US dollars).


CONCLUSIONS
Population-based interventions to encourage Americans to reduce dietary intake of saturated fat may prevent tens of thousands of cases of CHD and save billions of dollars in related costs.
Oster
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Policy Analysis Inc., Brookline, MA 02146, USA.
Thompson
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D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002784:Cholesterol / Q000097:blood; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D004041:Dietary Fats / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012307:Risk Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
D004041:Dietary Fats; D002784:Cholesterol