title: Predictors of the need for total hip replacement in patients with osteoarthritis of the hip.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  the natural history and risk factors for hip osteoarthritis are still unknown.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  to identify factors predicting a need for total hip replacement at some time during the course of hip osteoarthritis.
  
  
  METHODS
  outpatients evaluated between 1981 and 1986 for hip osteoarthritis were studied retrospectively. The date of diagnosis and the characteristics of the patients and hip disease at diagnosis were recorded. The risk of eventual total hip replacement was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Uni- and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the value of each variable for predicting total hip replacement.
  
  
  RESULTS
  we included 149 patients (50 males). The risk of total hip replacement was estimated at 36 +/- 4% five years after diagnosis. Factors with significant effects in the multivariate analysis were age older than 54 years at diagnosis (relative risk 3.15), body mass index greater than 27 (relative risk 2.97), and severe radiological joint space narrowing at diagnosis (relative risk 2.26).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  this study confirmed the often severe course of hip osteoarthritis and identified several factors possibly associated with rapid progression.
authors.affiliation: Rheumatology Department, Cochin Teaching Hospital, Paris, France.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Vinciguerra
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gueguen
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Revel
authors.forename: J N
authors.initials: JN
authors.lastname: Heuleu
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Amor
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Dougados
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006622:Hip Prosthesis; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D015207:Osteoarthritis, Hip / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000601:surgery*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012306:Risk