title: Modelling the impact of alternative HIV intervention strategies in rural Uganda.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To assess the likely impact on HIV incidence of increased condom use, a reduction in casual sexual partners, treatment programmes for other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and combinations of these in rural Uganda.
  
  
  METHODS
  A simulation model for the transmission dynamics of HIV infection and STD was employed, drawing on data from a rural population cohort in South-West Uganda with an HIV prevalence of 9% among adults in 1990.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For the scenario most consistent with data from the study population, 39% of all adult HIV infections were averted, in the 10 years from 1990, when condoms were used consistently and effectively by 50% of men in their contacts with one-off sexual partners (such as bar girls and commercial sex workers). Reducing by 50% the frequency of men's sexual contacts with one-off partners averted 68% of infections. Reducing by 50% the duration of all STD episodes averted 43% of infections. Combining these three interventions averted 82% of all adult infections in the 10 years from 1990.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A substantial proportion of HIV infections may be averted in general populations through interventions targeted only on less regular sexual partnerships.
authors.affiliation: INSERM Unit 88, National Hospital of Saint-Maurice, France.
authors.forename: N J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Robinson
authors.forename: D W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Mulder
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Auvert
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Hayes
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003198:Computer Simulation; D017280:Condoms; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D012749:Sexually Transmitted Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D014454:Uganda