title: [Can past developments foresee the grand picture of the 21st health care system: reversal of trends and stability?].
abstract: Social and economic forecasting in the health sector in France is particularly uncertain since most indicators have reversed their trends: transfers among health care structures (ambulatory care/outpatient care), prices, financing. The growth rate of global expense is diminishing and seems to be tending towards an asymptote of unknown level. The higher increase of health care among the elderly indicates a better correspondence between health care and morbidity, however, economic and social disparities, while they decreased from 1960 to 1980, have grown since. The improvement of health (life expectancy, invalidity, disability) is accompanied by an increase in the amount of disease. Finally, although the freedom of policy-makers is limited, their firmly stated will to modify the rules increases the uncertainty of the future of health care.
authors.affiliation: CREDES, Paris.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mizrahi
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mizrahi
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000553:Ambulatory Care / Q000191:economics; D002648:Child; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005602:France; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006291:Health Policy; D006296:Health Services / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006297:Health Services Accessibility; D006304:Health Status; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009017:Morbidity; D011050:Policy Making; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors
vernacular_title: Les évolutions passées permettent-elles de décrire les grandes lignes du système de santé du XXIe siècle: retournements de tendance et stabilités.