title: Technical note: changes in genetic predictions between subsequent evaluations.
abstract: A procedure was developed to compute the proportion (P) of future genetic predictions that would be within 1 SE of previous predictions. The procedure is based on the Central Limit Theorem. Whatever the distribution function, provided only that it has a finite variance, the sample mean will have approximately the normal distribution for large samples. The proportion of new individual genetic predictions being within 1 SE of their previous evaluation is expressed as a function of the change in accuracy (ACC) between the previous and subsequent evaluations. If little additional information is made available since the previous evaluation, the increase in ACC will be almost negligible. As anticipated the vast majority of genetic predictions will be within 1 SE of their previous evaluation. The proportion determined from the results of the analysis can be compared to P. An additional appealing feature of the procedure presented is the ease of implementation with most computer softwares. Finally, application to both simulated and field data is presented.
authors.affiliation: Junta de Extremadura, Servicio de Producción Agraria, Badajoz, Spain.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Reverter
authors.forename: B L
authors.initials: BL
authors.lastname: Golden
mesh_terms: D000704:Analysis of Variance; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005260:Female; D014644:Genetic Variation; D008297:Male; D008957:Models, Genetic; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012984:Software; D013223:Statistics as Topic