title: Multivariate risk factor analysis of clinical outcome 15 years after venous coronary artery bypass graft surgery.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Knowledge is still lacking about pre-operative and postoperative factors which predict the long-term prognosis of patients who undergo venous coronary artery bypass graft surgery.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Four hundred and twenty-eight consecutive patients who underwent isolated venous coronary artery bypass graft surgery with or without left ventricular aneurysm surgery between 1 April 1976 and 1 April 1977, were followed prospectively. Follow-up was 99.8% complete and averaged 15.4 years for the survivors. Two prognostic models were set up to illustrate the influence of 21 variables, present at and, 5 years after, surgery, on the occurrence of six different clinical events. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox regression model. Age, left ventricular function, pre-operative severity of angina and diabetes mellitus are continuous incremental risk factors for one or more events. Revascularization with sequential grafts only, and obesity at operation are incremental risk factors for acute myocardial infarction. From the 'classical' risk factors present 5 years after surgery hypertension is an incremental risk factor for both overall and cardiac mortality, diabetes mellitus for cardiac mortality, myocardial infarction, balloon angioplasty and smoking for all clinical events except mortality.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Well-known pre-operative factors including 'classical' risk factors, present late after surgery, influence the occurrence of clinical events. Treatment of these factors may result in better long-term prognosis after venous bypass graft surgery.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, Diaconessenhuis, Eindhoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: B L
authors.initials: BL
authors.lastname: van Brussel
authors.forename: H W
authors.initials: HW
authors.lastname: Plokker
authors.forename: A A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Voors
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Ernst
authors.forename: N M
authors.initials: NM
authors.lastname: Ernst
authors.forename: P J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Knaepen
authors.forename: E M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Koomen
authors.forename: J G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Tijssen
authors.forename: F E
authors.initials: FE
authors.lastname: Vermeulen
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass / Q000401:mortality* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000601:surgery*; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006085:Graft Survival; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000453:epidemiology; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis