title: Early prediction of outcome in score-identified, postcardiac surgical patients at high risk for sepsis, using soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-p55 concentrations.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To investigate the prognostic value of increased serum concentrations of soluble tumor necrosis factor (TNF) receptors in patients at high risk for sepsis.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cardiac surgical intensive care unit in a University Hospital.
  
  
  METHODS
  Those 27 of 870 consecutive postcardiac surgical patients who met a previously validated high-risk criterion for imminent sepsis (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II [APACHE II] score of > or = 24 on the first postoperative day [day 1]). In this population, systemic inflammatory response syndrome was present in 96% of the patients and the in-hospital mortality rate was 30%. In addition, ten postcardiac surgical patients with an uncomplicated course (mortality rate 0%) were studied for comparison.
  
  
  METHODS
  Blood sampling for measurements of serum concentrations of TNF and soluble TNF receptors 55 kilodalton (TNF receptor-p55) and 75 kilodalton (TNF receptor-p75) on days 1, 2, 3, and 5.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Compared with the ten patients with an uncomplicated course (group A), the high-risk patients had significantly higher baseline (day 1) serum concentrations of soluble TNF receptor-p55 (9.2 vs. 4.2 ng/mL) and soluble TNF receptor-p75 (9.2 vs. 5.5 ng/mL). These high-risk patients could be further differentiated into two subgroups: one (B) with a prompt decrease in APACHE II score and a good prognosis (mortality rate 0%) and another (C) with a persisting high risk of sepsis and mortality rate (40%, p < .05). Although baseline APACHE II score was similar in both high-risk subgroups, soluble TNF receptor-p55 concentrations were significantly higher in subgroup C compared with subgroup B already at baseline (10.7 vs. 4.7 ng/mL). The receiver operating characteristic curve for subgroup classification by soluble TNF receptor-p55 was in a discriminating position with an area (0.773 +/- 0.096), confirming soluble TNF receptor-p55 as a predictor of mortality. TNF and soluble TNF receptor-p75 concentrations were less predictive at baseline.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study suggest that increased soluble TNF receptor-p55 concentrations in the serum of postcardiac surgical patients allow earlier prognostication of subsequent hospital course than APACHE II scores alone. This study further suggests that the combination of physiologic scores and cytokine receptor measurements could improve the predictive power of early postoperative risk stratification.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine I, Grosshadern University Hospital, University of Munich, Germany.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Pilz
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Fraunberger
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Appel
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kreuzer
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Werdan
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Walli
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Seidel
mesh_terms: D018806:APACHE; D015703:Antigens, CD / Q000032:analysis*; D006348:Cardiac Surgical Procedures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D006801:Humans; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000097:blood / Q000401:mortality*; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D018124:Receptors, Tumor Necrosis Factor / Q000032:analysis*; D047888:Receptors, Tumor Necrosis Factor, Type I; D047889:Receptors, Tumor Necrosis Factor, Type II; D012307:Risk Factors; D018805:Sepsis / Q000097:blood / Q000401:mortality*; D012995:Solubility; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D015703:Antigens, CD; D018124:Receptors, Tumor Necrosis Factor; D047888:Receptors, Tumor Necrosis Factor, Type I; D047889:Receptors, Tumor Necrosis Factor, Type II