The estimated long-term impact of tsetse control on the size of the population of cattle in the Didessa Valley, western Ethiopia .
The long-term impact of tsetse control on cattle population size in the Didessa Valley, western Ethiopia, was analysed using an age-structured population model. A prior analytical assessment revealed that the risk of cattle dying in the tsetse-unprotected villages ranged from 4 to 9 times higher than in the tsetse-protected village. Model results show that during a period of 10 years the cattle population in the tsetse-protected village of Meti is likely to increase from 167 to 583 animals, while that in the adjacent tsetse-unprotected village of Gale remains almost constant. Model simulations also predict that improving the survival rate of calves in the tsetse-unprotected villages of Taikiltu and Temoloko (which presently have calf mortality rates of up to 35% would bring a substantial increase in their cattle population.
Jemal
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Department of Epidemiology and Community Health, Coastal Ecology Institute, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA.
Justic
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Hugh-Jones
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D000367:Age Factors; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005002:Ethiopia / Q000453:epidemiology; D007300:Insect Control; D008954:Models, Biological; D011156:Population Density; D015996:Survival Rate; D014352:Trypanosomiasis / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D014370:Tsetse Flies