title: A mathematical model for predicting trends in carbon monoxide emissions and exposures on urban arterial highways.
abstract: The roadway is one of the most important microenvironments for human exposure to carbon monoxide (CO). To evaluate long-term changes in pollutant exposure due to in-transit activities, a mathematical model has been developed to predict average daily vehicular emissions on highways. By utilizing measurements that are specific for a given location and year (e.g., traffic counts, fleet composition), this model can predict emissions for a specific roadway during various time periods of interest, allowing examination of long-term trends in human exposure to CO. For an arterial highway in northern California, this model predicts that CO emissions should have declined by 58% between 1980 and 1991, which agrees fairly well with field measurements of human exposure taken along that roadway during those two years. An additional reduction of up to 60% in CO emissions is predicted to occur between 1991 and 2002, due solely to the continued replacement of older cars with newer, cleaner vehicles.
authors.affiliation: Stanford University, California, USA.
authors.forename: L E
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.forename: L M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Hildemann
authors.forename: W R
authors.initials: WR
authors.lastname: Ott
mesh_terms: D002248:Carbon Monoxide / Q000032:analysis*; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000032:analysis*; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013997:Time Factors; D014505:Urban Population; D001335:Vehicle Emissions / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D001335:Vehicle Emissions; D002248:Carbon Monoxide