Prediction of 3-year outcome of treated alcoholics by an empirically derived multivariate typology.
OBJECTIVE
This study examined whether an empirically derived multivariate typology can predict outcome in treated alcoholics.


METHODS
Two hundred fifty-nine hospitalized male alcoholics were divided into two subtypes by means of cluster analysis of clinical factors. Type A showed the features of sporadic late-onset alcoholism, whereas type B manifested the characteristics of familial early-onset alcoholism. The prospective 3-year outcomes in the two subtypes were compared.


RESULTS
The follow-up rate was 83%. The mortality and abstinence rates for type A patients (N = 98) were 15.3% and 32.7%, respectively, and for type B patients (N = 116), 23.3% and 18.1%, respectively. The age-corrected relative mortality risk and relative abstinence rate for type A patients compared with type B patients were 0.59 and 1.60, respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
Familial early-onset alcoholism has a poor outcome in Japan, and this multivariate typology has high predictive validity.
Yoshino
A
A
Komagino Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
Kato
M
M
D000328:Adult; D017668:Age of Onset; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000145:classification* / Q000235:genetics / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D005190:Family; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011336:Probability; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D013695:Temperance; D016896:Treatment Outcome