AIDS survival and progression in black Africans living in south London, 1986-1994.
OBJECTIVE
To describe the rate of progression to AIDS and survival following AIDS diagnosis in HIV-infected Africans living in London. To identify factors influencing progression and outcome of disease.


METHODS
Retrospectively constructed prevalent cohort.


METHODS
Outpatient clinic population, London.


METHODS
HIV-infected individuals of African origin presenting between January 1986 and October 1994.


METHODS
AIDS indicator illness; cumulative survival probabilities to AIDS diagnosis and from AIDS diagnosis to death; rate of progression to AIDS.


RESULTS
Ninety six patients (57 women) provided 166 person years of follow up. Median CD4 lymphocyte count at presentation was 205 (90% range 20-577) x 10(6)/l. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the proportion (95% confidence interval) of patients developing AIDS from the time of enrollment were 18 (9 to 27)% at 12 months and 44 (30 to 58)% at 36 months. Only CD4 count at HIV diagnosis was independently associated with a faster rate of progression to AIDS (adjusted relative hazard 9.18%, 95% confidence interval 2.84 to 29.67, p < 0.001). The proportion (95% confidence interval) surviving following AIDS diagnosis was estimated to be 73 (55 to 91)% at 12 months and 25 (0 to 52)% at 36 months.


CONCLUSIONS
HIV-infected people of sub-Saharan African origin living in London present with advanced disease. When compared with published studies, their survival experience is comparable to that observed in HIV-infected individuals born in developed countries.
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Department of Genitourinary Medicine, King's College School of Medicine & Dentistry, London.
Paine
K
K
Clark
R
R
Mahalingam
M
M
Pozniak
A L
AL
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000208:ethnology / Q000276:immunology / Q000401:mortality*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000349:Africa / Q000208:ethnology; D000368:Aged; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008131:London / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis; D015996:Survival Rate