title: Estimating the probability of occurrence of tumor for a rare cancer with zero occurrence in a sample.
abstract: In many physical situations one needs to estimate the probability of occurrence of a rare event based on a random sample when the event has not occurred at all. For example, if the true lifetime incidence of a tumor at a particular tissue site is less than 1%, it is not uncommon to observe no tumors in a typical sample size of 50 animals. This paper explores the suitability of nonzero Bayesian estimation procedures to replace zero maximum likelihood estimates for tissue sites with nonzero background tumor incidences.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, Missouri, 65211, USA.
authors.forename: A P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Basu
authors.forename: D W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Gaylor
authors.forename: J J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004305:Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; D015994:Incidence; D007928:Lethal Dose 50; D008297:Male; D009374:Neoplasms, Experimental / Q000453:epidemiology*; D051381:Rats; D014481:United States; D014486:United States Food and Drug Administration