Fitting a multiplicative incidence model to age- and time-specific prevalence data.
We discuss the assessment of age- and time-specific disease incidence using prevalence data. A method is described for conveniently fitting a discrete-time multiplicative model, subject to positivity constraints, using the EM-algorithm. Together with smoothing, it allows essentially nonparametric assessment of incidence trends. The method is illustrated using previously analyzed data on toxoplasmosis.
Marschner
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Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA.
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000465:Algorithms; D001699:Biometry; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D013997:Time Factors; D014123:Toxoplasmosis / Q000453:epidemiology