title: Demographic modelling of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the Soweto population--results and health policy implications.
abstract: In this paper we present the results of a local HIV/AIDS demographic modelling exercise for Soweto, Johannesburg. The Doyle model was used to project the growth of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Soweto until the year 2010. High, medium and low AIDS scenarios are projected; these depend on reduction in the average number of sexual partners, increased condom use and effective treatment of sexually transmitted diseases. In 1993 the HIV prevalence was estimated to be 3% for all three of the low, medium and high AIDS scenarios, but differences emerge rapidly after this. By 2010 the projected HIV seroprevalences in the high, medium and low AIDS scenarios are 24%, 15% and 8% respectively, corresponding with 343,000, 222,000 and 118,000 HIV-infected people. By the year 2010, AIDS will have caused 135,000-270,000 deaths and during that year will account for 28-52% of all deaths. The total population will continue to increase in size, even in the high AIDS scenario, with the population growth rate ranging from 1.8% (low AIDS scenario) to 1% (high AIDS scenario) by the year 2010. This modelling exercise has demonstrated the enormous potential impact of timeous and effective implementation of currently available prevention strategies. The need to institute prevention programmes in the short term is therefore stressed. Recommendations are also made about the care of people with HIV/AIDS. Other areas are encouraged to attempt similar exercises in order to stimulate local and regional planning of HIV/AIDS prevention and care.
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Esterhuyse
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Steinberg
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Schneider
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003710:Demography; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D006291:Health Policy / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology