[Prognostic factors of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia in AIDS].
OBJECTIVE
Identify prognosis factors in Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia at diagnosis and construct a model to predict mortality according to these prognosis factors.


METHODS
Seventy-seven consecutive cases of proven AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (67 men, 10 women, mean age 37.2 years) were reviewed to determine the most accurate initial prognostic factors and estimate an individual prediction of death. A stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed. Three kinds of data were entered into the logistic model: historical data, clinical and laboratory data obtained within the first 24 hours of diagnosis, and specific data related to chest X-ray and bronchoalveolar lavage results.


RESULTS
The sum of arterial partial pressure of oxygen and carbon dioxide (PaO2 + PaCO2) and serum albumin level best predicted a fatal outcome in multivariate analysis.


CONCLUSIONS
The logistic equation provided by the model might be used to accurately and quickly identify the patients with severe Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia who might benefit from supportive intensive care.
Hoen
B
B
Département de Maladies infectieuses et tropicales, CHU de Nancy.
Viel
J F
JF
Maignan
M
M
Hennequin
L
L
May
T
T
Amiel
C
C
Kures
L
L
Canton
P
P
D017088:AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections / Q000097:blood / Q000382:microbiology / Q000401:mortality*; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001784:Blood Gas Analysis; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011020:Pneumonia, Pneumocystis / Q000097:blood / Q000382:microbiology / Q000401:mortality*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012709:Serum Albumin / Q000032:analysis
D012709:Serum Albumin
Facteurs pronostiques de la pneumocystose au cours du SIDA.