Malthusian parameter on the Finnish population in the 20th century.
We were interested in studying a demographic indicator, the Malthusian parameter which had not been investigated earlier in the case of the Finnish population. We computed the Malthusian parameter with a known renewal equation, which is, as usual, approximated on discrete data by using normal distribution, on the Finnish population in the 20th century. The data was collected from the abundant official statistical sources which are known to be accurate and reliable in Finland. In addition to this parameter we computed the gross and net reproduction rates, the total fertility index, and the mean and variance age of females at child-bearing. The Malthusian parameter seems to be a rather good means of characterizing the development of the population. If the parameter is positive for long enough, the population tends to grow. If it is negative, as has been the case in Finland since 1969, the population starts to diminish sooner or later. On the other hand, it cannot take all factors into account. For instance, because of still increasing lifetime and also because of a relatively large quantity of females at the reproductive age the population is not yet decreasing in Finland. In any case, the Malthusian parameter forecasts the future trend of the decreasing population.
Juhola
K
K
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Kuopio, Finland.
Juhola
M
M
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003710:Demography; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D005387:Finland; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008136:Longevity; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012098:Reproduction