title: Longer femoral necks in the young: a predictor of further increases in hip fracture incidence?
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine whether femoral neck length, a risk factor for hip fracture, is likely to increase in the coming decades in normal elderly New Zealand women.
  
  
  METHODS
  Femoral neck length was measured from dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scans of the proximal femur in white women aged 19-88 years (n = 211). Since this length remains constant throughout adult life, it is possible to predict future trends in this index in the elderly, from its measurement at the present time in younger adults.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Femoral neck length was inversely related to age (p = 0.018) such that a 3.7 mm (5.7%) difference occurred over the age-range of this sample.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Femoral neck length in elderly New Zealand women is likely to increase in the coming decades. As a result of the dependence of hip fracture risk on femoral neck length, future age-adjusted hip fracture incidence will increase by about 50% over the next 50 years unless significant public health initiatives are taken, either to increase bone density or to reduce fall frequency.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, University of Auckland School of Medicine.
authors.forename: I R
authors.initials: IR
authors.lastname: Reid
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Chin
authors.forename: M C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Evans
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Cundy
mesh_terms: D015502:Absorptiometry, Photon; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D005272:Femur Neck / Q000033:anatomy & histology* / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000209:etiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008875:Middle Aged; D009520:New Zealand