title: Correlates of major complications or death in patients admitted to the hospital with congestive heart failure.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  When triaging a patient who has heart failure, the physician must estimate the patient's shortterm risk of a major complication or death.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective cohort study of 435 patients admitted nonelectively to an urban university hospital between February 2, 1993, and February 2, 1994, with a complaint of shortness of breath or fatigue and evidence of congestive heart failure on admission chest radiograph.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Major adverse events occurred in 18% of patients who had ejection fractions less than 0.50, 16% of those with ejection fractions of 0.50 or more, and 19% of those with previous heart failure, ejection fractions of 0.50 or more, and no significant valvular disease. In multivariate analyses of all patients, independent correlates (P < or = .01) of major complications or death during hospitalization were initial systolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or less (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 5.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-17.1), respiratory rate more than 30 breaths per minute on admission to the hospital (OR, 4.6; 95% CI, 2.4-8.8), serum sodium level of 135 mmol/L or less (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3-4.0), and ST-T wave changes on initial electrocardiogram neither known to be old nor attributable to digoxin (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 2.9-8.9). However, even patients with none of these 4 risk factors had a 6% rate of a major complication or death.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  No truly low-risk group existed. Patients without hypotension, tachypnea, hyponatremia, or electrocardiographic changes of ischemia represent the best candidates for triage to less intensely monitored settings, but clinical judgment is essential.
authors.affiliation: Section for Clinical Epidemiology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Mass, USA.
authors.forename: M H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Chin
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Goldman
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003643:Death; D005260:Female; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000150:complications* / Q000209:etiology; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012306:Risk