title: Dangerousness commitments: indices of future violence potential?
abstract: This study examines the accuracy of long-term clinical predictions of dangerousness among psychiatric inpatients and explores factors influencing the levels of such accuracy. Hospital and state criminal history records of all psychiatric patients (N = 31) for whom, during a four-year period, treatment staff pursued extended civil commitments based on dangerousness under the Postcertification for the imminently Dangerous statute (California Welfare and Institutions Code section 5300) were reviewed. A matched control group consisted of 31 patients who had been placed on 14-Day Certifications for Dangerousness to Others, but who were not subsequently placed on 180-Day Postcertifications. Sixty-one percent of patients in the postcertification group engaged in documented physically assaultive behavior during the extended one- to five-year follow-up period, compared with 26 percent of patients in the matched control group, suggesting that inclusion in the extended commitment group was indicative of greater long-term potential for assault. Differences in assaultiveness did not emerge during the first year of followup, but became clear and significant over subsequent years. Accuracy of prediction differed as a function of patient ethnic group.
authors.affiliation: Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, CA 94304, USA.
authors.forename: R A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Zeiss
authors.forename: E D
authors.initials: ED
authors.lastname: Tanke
authors.forename: H H
authors.initials: HH
authors.lastname: Fenn
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Yesavage
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002140:California; D003134:Commitment of Persons with Psychiatric Disorders / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D003617:Dangerous Behavior; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014754:Violence / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000523:psychology