Addiction versus stages of change models in predicting smoking cessation.
Prospective data from the California Tobacco Surveys (n = 2066) were used to perform a critical test of the Prochaska et al. (1991) stages of change model. When the stages of change model was used as a stand alone predictor, smokers in preparation at baseline were more likely to be in cessation at follow-up than smokers in pre-contemplation at baseline (ORadj = 1.9). When stage membership was combined with baseline measures of addiction including smoking behaviors and quitting history, it was not a significant predictor of future cessation. A prediction equation that combined daily vs. occasional smoking, cigarettes per day smoked, life-time quits of at least a year, and quits of more than 5 days in the previous year discriminated smokers in cessation at follow-up of 1 to 2 years better than did the stages of change model. The area under the ROC curve for the equation based on addiction measures was 69.3% vs. 55.1% for the stages of change. Cessation rates ranged from 7.7% to 35.7% for the four-category addiction equation compared with 15.1% to 24.9% for stages of change model.
Farkas
A J
AJ
Cancer Prevention and Control Program, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla 92093-0901, USA.
Pierce
J P
JP
Zhu
S H
SH
Rosbrook
B
B
Gilpin
E A
EA
Berry
C
C
Kaplan
R M
RM
D002140:California / Q000453:epidemiology; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D009042:Motivation; D010342:Patient Acceptance of Health Care; D012494:Sampling Studies; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology*; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000523:psychology*; D000074606:Smoking Prevention; D016896:Treatment Outcome