Probabilities and lifetime durations of short-stay hospital and nursing home use in the United States, 1985.
OBJECTIVE
The authors present a four-state increment-decrement life table model from which estimates of the risk and duration of nursing home and short-term hospital stays in the United States are derived.


METHODS
Survival analysis was used to generate various transition probabilities while controlling for population heterogeneity. In addition, a newly developed algorithm was applied to construct the multistate life table specifically for health-care use.


RESULTS
The results reveal that in 1985, a US civilian is expected to spend 72.35 years in the community, 59.5 days in short-stay hospitals, and 2.28 years in nursing homes throughout his or her lifetime.


CONCLUSIONS
The single-year risk of nursing home and short-stay hospital use is shown to be an increasing function of age, especially for the older adults.
Liang
J
J
Institute of Gerontology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48109-2007, USA.
Liu
X
X
Tu
E
E
Whitelaw
N
N
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006302:Health Services Research; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007902:Length of Stay / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015993:Life Tables; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D009735:Nursing Homes / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011153:Population; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology