title: Addiction versus stages of change models in predicting smoking cessation.
abstract: Prospective data from the California Tobacco Surveys (n = 2066) were used to perform a critical test of the Prochaska et al. (1991) stages of change model. When the stages of change model was used as a stand alone predictor, smokers in preparation at baseline were more likely to be in cessation at follow-up than smokers in pre-contemplation at baseline (ORadj = 1.9). When stage membership was combined with baseline measures of addiction including smoking behaviors and quitting history, it was not a significant predictor of future cessation. A prediction equation that combined daily vs. occasional smoking, cigarettes per day smoked, life-time quits of at least a year, and quits of more than 5 days in the previous year discriminated smokers in cessation at follow-up of 1 to 2 years better than did the stages of change model. The area under the ROC curve for the equation based on addiction measures was 69.3% vs. 55.1% for the stages of change. Cessation rates ranged from 7.7% to 35.7% for the four-category addiction equation compared with 15.1% to 24.9% for stages of change model.
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prevention and Control Program, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla 92093-0901, USA.
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Farkas
authors.forename: J P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Pierce
authors.forename: S H
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Rosbrook
authors.forename: E A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Gilpin
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Berry
authors.forename: R M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Kaplan
mesh_terms: D002140:California / Q000453:epidemiology; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D009042:Motivation; D010342:Patient Acceptance of Health Care; D012494:Sampling Studies; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology*; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000523:psychology*; D000074606:Smoking Prevention; D016896:Treatment Outcome