title: Risk-based environmental remediation: Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis and the expected value of sample information.
abstract: A methodology that simulates outcomes from future data collection programs, utilizes Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis to predict the resulting reduction in uncertainty in an environmental fate-and-transport model, and estimates the expected value of this reduction in uncertainty to a risk-based environmental remediation decision is illustrated considering polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) sediment contamination and uptake by winter flounder in New Bedford Harbor, MA. The expected value of sample information (EVSI), the difference between the expected loss of the optimal decision based on the prior uncertainty analysis and the expected loss of the optimal decision from an updated information state, is calculated for several sampling plan. For the illustrative application we have posed, the EVSI for a sampling plan of two data points is $9.4 million, for five data points is $10.4 million, and for ten data points is $11.5 million. The EVSI for sampling plans involving larger numbers of data points is bounded by the expected value of perfect information, $15.6 million. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the effect of selected model structure and parametric assumptions on the optimal decision and the EVSI. The optimal decision (total area to be dredged) is sensitive to the assumption of linearity between PCB sediment concentration and flounder PCB body burden and to the assumed relationship between area dredged and the harbor-wide average sediment PCB concentration; these assumptions also have a moderate impact on the computed EVSI. The EVSI is most sensitive to the unit cost of remediation and rather insensitive to the penalty cost associated with under-remediation.
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Idaho, Idaho Falls 83405, USA.
authors.forename: M E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Dakins
authors.forename: J E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Toll
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Small
authors.forename: K P
authors.initials: KP
authors.lastname: Brand
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001822:Body Burden; D004787:Environmental Pollution / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005432:Flounder / Q000378:metabolism; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011078:Polychlorinated Biphenyls / Q000493:pharmacokinetics; D012306:Risk; D012494:Sampling Studies; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000493:pharmacokinetics
chemical_list: D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical; D011078:Polychlorinated Biphenyls