The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate.
In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. Previous biome maps either remain unchanging or shift without taking into account climatic feedbacks such as radiation and temperature. We develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed temperature trend and order of magnitude change. The model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution that minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search, an artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The method is to adjust biome areas subject to a constant global temperature and total surface area constraint. For regulating global temperature, oceans are found to dominate continental biomes. Algal beds are significant radiative levers as are other carbon intensive biomes including estuaries and tropical deciduous forests. To hold global temperature constant over the next 70 years this simulation requires that deserts decrease and forested areas increase. The effect of biome change on global temperature is revealed as a significant forecasting factor.
Noever
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DA
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, George C. Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812, USA. dnoever@aol.com
Brittain
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A
Matsos
H C
HC
Baskaran
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S
Obenhuber
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D
D000465:Algorithms; D002980:Climate; D004463:Ecology; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D008957:Models, Genetic; D008962:Models, Theoretical