title: Strategies for managing uncertainty and complexity.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To identify strategies involved in the diagnosis and treatment plans of primary care problems that are uncertain and complex.
  
  
  METHODS
  In this exploratory study we observed primary care physicians encountering standardized patients who portrayed typical primary care problems involving uncertainty and complexity. First, we analyzed 10 tapes of nine physicians with a range of clinical experience (first-year residents through faculty physicians) interacting with four standardized patient cases (headache, back pain, hypertension, and abdominal pain). We analyzed the 10 tapes to determine the regular occurrence of physician behavior patterns that we later described as strategies. Then, using a written questionnaire, 19 general internal medicine faculty physicians from our hospital and from an affiliated hospital rated the perceived importance of these strategies for clinical practice in general. Finally, we checked the incidence of the strategies: (1) across a range of six cases (headache, back pain, hypertension, abdominal pain, fatigue, and well-adult care) using six first-year residents (a total of 19 encounters), and (2) across different levels of clinical experience using the standardized patient case of headache involving eight physicians (first-year residents through faculty physicians).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Nine strategies were identified, and each was rated as important to primary care clinical practice. The strategies were: (1) defines the context of the diagnosis and explains the signs and symptoms as part of the expected spectrum of the disease; (2) eliminates alternative diagnoses by dealing with patient fears, giving reasons in the context of the patient's belief system; (3) describes the prognosis in terms of the likely course of the disease and expectations of treatment; (4) negotiates key problems or issues that are important to both patient and physician; (5) negotiates the plan and ensures patient understands, and is willing and able to comply, given his/her particular context; (6) keeps diagnostic options open by making provisional diagnoses while keeping alternatives in mind; (7) is circumspect and takes action to minimize the possibility of missing other critical diagnoses; (8) plays for time by allowing signs and symptoms to develop to help clarify the diagnosis; and (9) plans for contingencies by providing appropriate if/then statements concerning situations requiring further action. The strategies were used in each of the six cases, and by physicians with all levels of clinical experience.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The nine strategies led to the generation of a construct we termed "strategic medical management," which refers to the management (diagnosis and proposed treatment) of uncertain and complex medical problems in primary care. The construct provides a more elaborated framework in which to view clinical decision making and integrates recent ideas concerning doctor-patient communication into this process. Strategic medical management appears to be based on tacit knowledge that is seldom explicity articulated or taught. It has potential implications for enhancing instruction and assessment in medical education.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA.
authors.forename: M G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Hewson
authors.forename: P J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Kindy
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Van Kirk
authors.forename: V A
authors.initials: VA
authors.lastname: Gennis
authors.forename: R P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Day
mesh_terms: D002983:Clinical Competence; D019468:Disease Management; D007722:Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice; D006801:Humans; D010817:Physician-Patient Relations; D010818:Practice Patterns, Physicians'; D011320:Primary Health Care / Q000379:methods / Q000639:trends; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires