Implementing the Bayesian paradigm: reporting research results over the World-Wide Web.
For decades, statisticians, philosophers, medical investigators and others interested in data analysis have argued that the Bayesian paradigm is the proper approach for reporting the results of scientific analyses for use by clients and readers. To date, the methods have been too complicated for non-statisticians to use. In this paper we argue that the World-Wide Web provides the perfect environment to put the Bayesian paradigm into practice: the likelihood function of the data is parsimoniously represented on the server side, the reader uses the client to represent her prior belief, and a downloaded program (a Java applet) performs the combination. In our approach, a different applet can be used for each likelihood function, prior belief can be assessed graphically, and calculation results can be reported in a variety of ways. We present a prototype implementation, BayesApplet, for two-arm clinical trials with normally-distributed outcomes, a prominent model for clinical trials. The primary implication of this work is that publishing medical research results on the Web can take a form beyond or different from that currently used on paper, and can have a profound impact on the publication and use of research results.
Lehmann
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HP
Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, University of Baltimore. lehmann@welchgate.welch.jhu.edu
Wachter
M R
MR
D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003195:Computer Communication Networks; D003199:Computer Systems; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D011381:Programming Languages; D011643:Publishing