title: Estimates of ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence to examine the Vienna Convention achievements.
abstract: Depletion of the ozone layer has been observed on a global scale, and is probably related to halocarbon emissions. Ozone depletion increases the biologically harmful solar ultraviolet radiation reaching the surface of the Earth, which leads to a variety of adverse effects, including an increase in the incidence of skin cancer. The 1985 Vienna Convention provided the framework for international restrictions on the production of ozone-depleting substances. The consequences of such restrictions have not yet been assessed in terms of effects avoided. Here we present a new method of estimating future excess skin cancer risks which is used to compare effects of a 'no restrictions' scenario with two restrictive scenarios specified under the Vienna Convention: the Montreal Protocol, and the much stricter Copenhagen Amendments. The no-restrictions and Montreal Protocol scenarios produce a runaway increase in skin cancer incidence, up to a quadrupling and doubling, respectively, by the year 2100. The Copenhagen Amendments scenario leads to an ozone minimum around the year 2000, and a peak relative increase in incidence of skin cancer of almost 10% occurring 60 years later. These results demonstrate the importance of the international measures agreed upon under the Vienna Convention.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Radiation Research, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. harry.slaper@rivm.nl
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Slaper
authors.forename: G J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Velders
authors.forename: J S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Daniel
authors.forename: F R
authors.initials: FR
authors.lastname: de Gruijl
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: van der Leun
mesh_terms: D001272:Atmosphere; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007391:International Cooperation; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009381:Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D010126:Ozone; D012878:Skin Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D014466:Ultraviolet Rays; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D010126:Ozone