Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: the role of the components of demographic change.
The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus "nonsignificant" correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined with contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor-force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.
Kelley
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AC
Department of Economics, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
Schmidt
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RM
D001723:Birth Rate; D004651:Employment; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D011156:Population Density; D011158:Population Growth; D013997:Time Factors