title: Using a logistic model to identify women with first-trimester spontaneous abortion suitable for expectant management.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To design a method to identify women with first trimester spontaneous abortion suitable for expectant management.
  
  
  METHODS
  A stepwise logistic regression analysis based on retrospective analysis of clinical and biochemical variables.
  
  
  METHODS
  Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden.
  
  
  METHODS
  One hundred and three women with inevitable or incomplete spontaneous abortion at < 13 weeks of gestation were chosen for expectant management. Eighty-one women with complete spontaneous abortion (i.e. complete expulsion and/or resolution of pregnancy products within three days of expectant management) were compared with those (n = 22) who underwent surgical evacuation of the uterus, most commonly owing to retained products of conception after three days.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Employing a stepwise logistic regression procedure, five diagnostic variables possessing prognostic power were identified: serum progesterone, daily serum hCG change, serum CA125, serum alpha fetoprotein and intrauterine diameter. The logistic regression analysis was also applied to three diagnostic variables chosen for routine clinical use: serum progesterone, serum hCG and intrauterine diameter. The probability of complete spontaneous abortion within three days of expectant management in each woman could be calculated.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We have used a logistic model to calculate the probability of complete spontaneous abortion within three days in women with first trimester miscarriages. Such information may be of clinical use in caring for women, as well as for development of management guidelines for those with miscarriages.
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Göteborg University, Sweden.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Nielsen
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hahlin
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Odén
mesh_terms: D000022:Abortion, Spontaneous / Q000517:prevention & control*; D000328:Adult; D018394:CA-125 Antigen / Q000378:metabolism; D006063:Chorionic Gonadotropin / Q000378:metabolism; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D011247:Pregnancy; D011261:Pregnancy Trimester, First; D011379:Prognosis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D000509:alpha-Fetoproteins / Q000378:metabolism
chemical_list: D018394:CA-125 Antigen; D006063:Chorionic Gonadotropin; D000509:alpha-Fetoproteins