title: Sources of uncertainty in estimating HIV infection rates by back-calculation: an application to Italian data.
abstract: The effects on back-calculated HIV diffusion estimates of the uncertainties in a number of factors that may potentially influence the estimation process are examined and compared. More specifically, the effect on HIV infection estimates of uncertainties in: (i) the sequence of periodical AIDS incidence cases; (ii) the estimation of the AIDS incubation period, including the influence of therapeutic treatment on the same; and (iii) the choice of a particular back-calculation method, including the stochastic uncertainty associated with each method, are examined. The choice of one particular back-calculation model over another, among three different methods considered, seems to be a minor component of the uncertainty, when compared to the uncertainty, due to all other sources. HIV incidence and prevalence in Italy for different risk categories are estimated.
authors.affiliation: Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Laboratorio di Epidemiologia e Biostatistica, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Mariotti
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Cascioli
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000628:therapy; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008390:Markov Chains; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010507:Periodicity; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013269:Stochastic Processes