title: Predictive model to identify trauma patients with blood alcohol concentrations > or = 50 mg/dl.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a simple model for identification of trauma patients who are likely to have a blood alcohol concentration > or = 50 mg/dL (BAC + 50).
  
  
  METHODS
  Demographic, clinical, and BAC data were collected from the clinical trauma registry and toxicology data base at a Level I trauma center. Logistic regression was used to analyze data from 11,206 patients to develop a predictive model, which was validated using a subsequent cohort of 3,523 patients.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the model development cohort, alcohol was detected in the blood of 3,180 BAC-tested patients (28.7%), of whom 91.2% had a BAC + 50 status. Preliminary analysis revealed associations between a BAC + 50 status and sex, age, race, injury type (intentional vs. unintentional), and time of injury (night vs. day and weekend vs. weekday). A predictive model using four attributes (sex and injury type) identified patients at low, medium, and high risk for being BAC + 50. The model was validated using the second group of patients.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Injured patients with a high probability of being alcohol positive can be identified using a simple scoring system based on readily available demographic and clinical information.
authors.affiliation: Division of Surgery/Traumatology, R Adams Cowley Shock Trauma Center, University of Maryland Medical Center, Baltimore 21201-1595, USA.
authors.forename: C A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Soderstrom
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Kufera
authors.forename: P C
authors.initials: PC
authors.lastname: Dischinger
authors.forename: T J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Kerns
authors.forename: J G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Murphy
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lowenfels
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D015331:Cohort Studies; D000431:Ethanol / Q000097:blood*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D014193:Trauma Centers; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000097:blood*
chemical_list: D000431:Ethanol