title: Oscillatory fluctuations in the incidence of rotavirus infections by serotypes 1, 2, 3, and 4.
abstract: The statistical evidence for regularity in the epidemic cycles of rotavirus infection for serotypes 1, 2, 3, and 4 was examined. Hospitalization longitudinal data of the monthly incidence of rotavirus infections from the city of Melbourne, Australia during 1977-1993 were used. Periodograms were used for exploring seasonal and longer-term cycles (interepidemic periods) of rotavirus infection. There was a satisfactory agreement between the interepidemic period estimated by means of periodograms with the one predicted by theoretical epidemiological studies. Thus, there is a clear evidence of a biennial peak in the epidemiology of rotavirus. Results of the study show an evidence of the likely existence of an interepidemic cycle of 4.6-5.2 years of duration. The finding of this interepidemic cycle was unexpected, and does not arise from the alternating incidence of the 4 serotypes since this peak appears in the periodogram of each serotype.
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México, D.F., México.
authors.forename: M V
authors.initials: MV
authors.lastname: José
authors.forename: J R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Bobadilla
authors.forename: R F
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Bishop
mesh_terms: D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D005759:Gastroenteritis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D010507:Periodicity; D012401:Rotavirus / Q000302:isolation & purification; D012400:Rotavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D012703:Serotyping