title: A prognostic model for the outcome of liver transplantation in patients with cholestatic liver disease.
abstract: We studied the outcome of 436 patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) or primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) who underwent orthotopic liver transplant (OLT) at three major liver transplant centers. Univariate predictors of outcome included age, Karnofsky score, Child's class, Mayo risk score, United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) status, nutritional status, serum albumin, serum bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and the presence of ascites, encephalopathy, renal failure (serum creatinine > 2 mg/dL), and edema refractory to diuretics. Using these predictors, we developed a four variable mathematical prognostic model to help the liver transplant physician predict the following: 1) the amount of intraoperative blood loss; 2) the number of days in the intensive care unit (ICU); and 3) severe complications after surgery. The model uses age, renal failure, Child's class, and United Network for Organ Sharing status. This study is the first to model the outcome of liver transplant in patients with a specific etiology of chronic liver disease (PBC or PSC). The model may be used to help select patients for OLT and to plan the timing of their transplantation.
authors.affiliation: Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Ricci
authors.forename: T M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Therneau
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Malinchoc
authors.forename: J T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Benson
authors.forename: J L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Petz
authors.forename: G B
authors.initials: GB
authors.lastname: Klintmalm
authors.forename: J S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Crippin
authors.forename: R H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Wiesner
authors.forename: J L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Steers
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rakela
authors.forename: T E
authors.initials: TE
authors.lastname: Starzl
authors.forename: E R
authors.initials: ER
authors.lastname: Dickson
mesh_terms: D000704:Analysis of Variance; D015209:Cholangitis, Sclerosing / Q000601:surgery*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008105:Liver Cirrhosis, Biliary / Q000601:surgery*; D016031:Liver Transplantation; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D016019:Survival Analysis; D016896:Treatment Outcome