Cost-effectiveness of carotid endarterectomy in asymptomatic patients.
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of carotid endarterectomy for treating asymptomatic patients with > or = 60% internal carotid stenosis, based on outcomes reported in the Asymptomatic Carotid Atherosclerosis Study (ACAS).


METHODS
A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using a Markov decision model in which the probabilities for base-case analysis (average age, 67 years; 66% male; perioperative stroke plus death rate, 2.3%; ipsilateral stroke rate during medical management, 2.3% per year) were based on ACAS. The model assumed that patients who had TIAs or minor strokes during medical management crossed over to surgical treatment, and used the NASCET data to model the outcome of these now-symptomatic patients. Average cost of surgery ($8500), major stroke ($34,000 plus $18,000 per year), and other costs were based on local cost determinations plus a review of the published literature. Cost-effectiveness was calculated as the incremental cost of surgery per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) saved when compared with medical treatment, discounting at 5% per year. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the impact of key variables on cost-effectiveness.


RESULTS
In the base-case analysis, surgical treatment improved quality-adjusted life expectancy from 7.87 to 8.12 QALYs, at an incremental lifetime cost of $2041. This yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $8,000 per QALY saved by surgical compared with medical treatment. The high cost of care after major stroke during medical management largely offset the initial cost of endarterectomy in the surgical group. Furthermore, 26% of medically managed patients eventually underwent endarterectomy because of symptom development, which also decreased the cost differential. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the relative cost of surgical treatment increased substantially with increasing age, increasing perioperative stroke rate, and decreasing stroke rate during medical management.


CONCLUSIONS
For the typical asymptomatic patient in ACAS with > or = 60% carotid stenosis, our results indicate that carotid endarterectomy is cost-effective when compared with other commonly accepted health care practices. Surgery does not appear cost-effective in very elderly patients, in settings where the operative stroke risk is high, or in patients with very low stroke risk without surgery.
Cronenwett
J L
JL
Section of Vascular Surgery, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, NH 03756, USA.
Birkmeyer
J D
JD
Nackman
G B
GB
Fillinger
M F
MF
Bech
F R
FR
Zwolak
R M
RM
Walsh
D B
DB
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002343:Carotid Artery, Internal; D016893:Carotid Stenosis / Q000150:complications / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000191:economics* / Q000601:surgery; D002561:Cerebrovascular Disorders / Q000191:economics / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D016894:Endarterectomy, Carotid / Q000191:economics*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D012307:Risk Factors