Regression analysis of recent changes in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in The Netherlands.
OBJECTIVE
To test whether recent declines in mortality from coronary heart disease were associated with increased mortality from other cardiovascular diseases.


METHODS
Poisson regression analysis of national data on causes of death and hospital discharges.


METHODS
Population of the Netherlands, 1969-93.


METHODS
Annual changes in mortality from coronary heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases and annual changes in hospital discharge rates for acute coronary events, stroke, and congestive heart failures.


RESULTS
Patterns of cardiovascular mortality changed abruptly in 1987-93. Annual decline in mortality from coronary heart disease increased sharply for women and men: from -1.9% (95% confidence interval -2.2% to -1.6%) and -1.7% (-1.9% to -1.4%) respectively in 1979-86 to -3.1% (-3.5% to -2.6%) and -4.2% (-4.6% to -3.9%) in 1987-93. The longstanding decline in mortality from stroke levelled off: from annual change of -3.3% (-3.7% to -2.8%) and -3.2% (-3.7% to -2.8%) in 1979-86 to -0.1% (-0.7% to 0.4%) and -1.1% (-1.7% to -0.5%) in 1987-93. Mortality from other cardiovascular diseases, however, started to increase: from -2.0% (-2.4% to -1.6%) and -0.2% (-0.5% to 0.2%) in 1979-86 to 1.5% (1.0% to 2.0%) and 1.9% (1.5% to 2.3%) in 1987-93. Hospital discharge rates for acute coronary heart disease, congestive heart failure, and stroke increased during 1980-6. During 1987-93 discharge rates for stroke and coronary heart disease stabilised but rates for congestive heart failure increased.


CONCLUSIONS
Improved management of coronary heart disease seems to have reduced mortality, but some of the gains are lost to deaths from stroke and other cardiovascular diseases. The increasing numbers of patients with coronary heart disease who survive will increase demands on health services for long term care.
Bonneux
L
L
Department of Public Health, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Netherlands. bonneux@mgz.fgg.eur.nl
Looman
C W
CW
Barendregt
J J
JJ
Van der Maas
P J
PJ
D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality*; D002561:Cerebrovascular Disorders / Q000401:mortality; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015996:Survival Rate