title: Primer on medical decision analysis: Part 3--Estimating probabilities and utilities.
abstract: This paper describes how to estimate probabilities and outcome values for decision trees. Probabilities are usually derived from published studies, but occasionally are derived from existing databases, primary data collection, or expert judgment. Outcome values represent quantitative estimates of the desirability of the outcome states, and are often expressed as utility values between 0 and 1. Utility values for different health states can be derived from the published literature, from direct measurement in appropriate subjects, or from expert opinion. Methods for assigning utilities to complex outcome states are described, and the concept of quality-adjusted life years is introduced.
authors.affiliation: University of Toronto Programme in Clinical Epidemiology and Health Care Research (The Toronto Hospital and The Sunnybrook Health Science Centre Units), Ontario, Canada.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Naglie
authors.forename: M D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Krahn
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Naimark
authors.forename: D A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Redelmeier
authors.forename: A S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Detsky
mesh_terms: D001706:Biopsy; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D003663:Decision Trees; D013700:Giant Cell Arteritis / Q000150:complications / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000473:pathology; D006801:Humans; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D011241:Prednisone / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000627:therapeutic use; D011336:Probability; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D011241:Prednisone