[Surgically treated esophageal cancers: predictive model of survival].
OBJECTIVE
The aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors in patients with esophageal cancer after curative resection, and to establish a predictive model of their long-term prognosis.


METHODS
Eighty-nine patients operated on for neoplasia of the esophagus, who underwent a curative resection, an who did not die within one month or during the hospital stay, were included in this study. Twenty-one variables were studied by univariate analysis. The variables linked with survival were include in a Cox model. Regression coefficient of independent prognostic factors allowed to compute a score.


RESULTS
Life table analysis of the entire population, showed 2 and 5 year survival rates of 48% and 28%, respectively. In univariate analysis, 5 out of 21 factors were statistically linked with survival. In multivariate analysis (Cox model), 4 independent factors were linked with survival: age (P = 0.02), the American Society of Anesthesiologist classification (P = 0.01), parietal invasion (P = 0.03), and lymph node invasion (P = 0.009). The score established with these 4 factors allowed to distinguish 3 sub-groups, discriminated by their long term prognosis. Life table analysis of the 3 sub-groups were at 2 and 5 years 83%, 55%, 20% and 60%, 32%, 0%, respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
This model may be useful for the assessment of prognosis in patients with esophageal cancer after curative surgical treatment.
Petrequin
P
P
Service de Chirurgie Digestive, Hôpital Tenon, Paris.
Huguier
M
M
Lacaine
F
F
Houry
S
S
D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002294:Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D004938:Esophageal Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015993:Life Tables; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013997:Time Factors
Cancers de l'oesophage réséqués: modèle prédictif de survie.