title: Predictors of recurrent febrile seizures. A prospective cohort study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To define the risk and identify predictors of single and multiple recurrent febrile seizures.
  
  
  METHODS
  Children (n = 428) with first febrile seizures were prospectively identified and followed for 2 or more years. Parents were interviewed soon after their children's first febrile seizure and were called every 3 months to ascertain recurrent febrile seizures. Medical records of first and recurrent seizures were reviewed for additional information.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 136 children (31.8%) experienced recurrent seizures: 73 (17.1%) had only 1 recurrence, 38 (8.9%) had 2 recurrences, and 25 (5.8%) had 3 or more recurrences. Young age at onset, a history of febrile seizures in a first-degree relative, low degree of fever while in the emergency department, and a brief duration between the onset of fever and the initial seizure were strong independent predictors of recurrent febrile seizures. With these 4 factors combined, it is possible to define groups of children having very high and very low probabilities of having any recurrences (> 70% vs < 20%), having 2 or more recurrences (> 60% vs < 10%), and having 3 or more recurrence (12% vs about 0%). In children who had at least 1 recurrence, age at the time of the first recurrence and a family history of epilepsy were predictors of subsequent recurrences.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In children who have had a first febrile seizure, recurrences are common. The risk for 1 or more recurrences can be meaningfully predicted at the time of the initial febrile seizure with a combination of the 4 factors identified in this study.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, USA.
authors.forename: A T
authors.initials: AT
authors.lastname: Berg
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Shinnar
authors.forename: A S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Darefsky
authors.forename: T R
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: Holford
authors.forename: E D
authors.initials: ED
authors.lastname: Shapiro
authors.forename: M E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Salomon
authors.forename: E F
authors.initials: EF
authors.lastname: Crain
authors.forename: A W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Hauser
mesh_terms: D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012008:Recurrence; D012307:Risk Factors; D003294:Seizures, Febrile / Q000453:epidemiology*