title: The economic impact of a bioterrorist attack: are prevention and postattack intervention programs justifiable?
abstract: Understanding and quantifying the impact of a bioterrorist attack are essential in developing public health preparedness for such an attack. We constructed a model that compares the impact of three classic agents of biologic warfare (Bacillus anthracis, Brucella melitensis, and Francisella tularensis) when released as aerosols in the suburb of a major city. The model shows that the economic impact of a bioterrorist attack can range from an estimated $477.7 million per 100,000 persons exposed (brucellosis scenario) to $26.2 billion per 100,000 persons exposed (anthrax scenario). Rapid implementation of a postattack prophylaxis program is the single most important means of reducing these losses. By using an insurance analogy, our model provides economic justification for preparedness measures.
authors.affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia 30333, USA.
authors.forename: A F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Kaufmann
authors.forename: M I
authors.initials: MI
authors.lastname: Meltzer
authors.forename: G P
authors.initials: GP
authors.lastname: Schmid
mesh_terms: D000881:Anthrax / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control; D001694:Biological Warfare; D017347:Brucella melitensis; D002006:Brucellosis / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000191:economics; D006801:Humans; D014406:Tularemia / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control