Accuracy of indirect estimates of maternal mortality: a simulation model.
A simulation model was developed to test the accuracy of indirect estimates of maternal mortality (the sisterhood method). The model generated a first generation of grandmothers, a second generation of mothers (with brothers and sisters), and a third generation of children (births). In the second generation, maternal mortality was introduced. Empirical values for the parameters of fertility and mortality were taken from a prospective survey in Senegal (Niakhar). Results based on 100 simulations of the same situation revealed several limitations of the sisterhood method: The indirect estimates could fall as far as 33 percent from the true values on individual cases; the indirect estimates tended to be systematically higher than the direct estimates; their range was wider, as were their confidence intervals; and biases were particularly strong for the younger age groups of respondents. Reasons for these biases are explored.
Garenne
M
M
Directeur de Recherche, CEPED, Paris, France.
Friedberg
F
F
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D015982:Bias; D001723:Birth Rate; D003198:Computer Simulation; D016208:Databases, Factual; D003906:Developing Countries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D008428:Maternal Mortality; D008875:Middle Aged; D009679:Nuclear Family; D012675:Senegal / Q000453:epidemiology; D016019:Survival Analysis