title: Periodicity and prediction of mania onsets in biopolar I affective disorders.
abstract: In studying the periodicity of mania onsets, cycle-oriented diagrams were made of the clinical course from 257 manic episodes analyzed retrospectively in 34 bipolar I manic-depressive patients for a period of about 5 years. Using these diagrams, the frequent period of mania onsets located in one-quarter of the follow-up period was pre-estimated, and the accordance ratio during a 25 month follow-up period was analyzed. The accordance ratio in all subjects was 39% (11/28) for the first episode and 35% (7/20) for the second episode. These ratios were not significantly different from the expected level (25%). The number of subjects was limited to 11 patients (10 rapid and 1 non-rapid cyclers) whose number of episodes used for the determination of the index cycle was eight or more. The accordance ratio was 64% (7/11) and 60% (6/10) for the first and second episodes, respectively. Their levels were significantly higher than those expected. Periodicity of mania onsets existed at least in rapid cyclers with abundant past data.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neuropsychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, Tottori University, Yonago, Japan.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mizukawa
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Tsushima
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Takada
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nagabuchi
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Watanabe
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hazama
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001714:Bipolar Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000523:psychology; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010507:Periodicity; D011336:Probability; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012189:Retrospective Studies