The economic impact of a bioterrorist attack: are prevention and postattack intervention programs justifiable?
Understanding and quantifying the impact of a bioterrorist attack are essential in developing public health preparedness for such an attack. We constructed a model that compares the impact of three classic agents of biologic warfare (Bacillus anthracis, Brucella melitensis, and Francisella tularensis) when released as aerosols in the suburb of a major city. The model shows that the economic impact of a bioterrorist attack can range from an estimated $477.7 million per 100,000 persons exposed (brucellosis scenario) to $26.2 billion per 100,000 persons exposed (anthrax scenario). Rapid implementation of a postattack prophylaxis program is the single most important means of reducing these losses. By using an insurance analogy, our model provides economic justification for preparedness measures.
Kaufmann
A F
AF
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia 30333, USA.
Meltzer
M I
MI
Schmid
G P
GP
D000881:Anthrax / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control; D001694:Biological Warfare; D017347:Brucella melitensis; D002006:Brucellosis / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000191:economics; D006801:Humans; D014406:Tularemia / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control