title: Likely gains in life expectancy of patients with coronary artery disease treated with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors, as predicted by a decision analysis model.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the likely gains in life expectancy of patients with coronary artery disease treated with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors based on published reports and the results of the 4S and the West of Scotland Study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Decision analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Four likely scenarios of the effect of treatment with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors on the life expectancy of medically and surgically managed coronary artery disease were modelled.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Regardless of the scenario, treatment with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors was estimated to provide a gain in life expectancy for medically managed patients of all ages with coronary artery disease, ranging from 4.6 to 10.1 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for a 40 year old with three vessel disease (depending on the scenario assumed), to 0.2 QALYs for a 80 year old with two vessel disease. These gains were always greater than those predicted after bypass alone. If the use of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors produces the same reduction in cardiac mortality after bypass as it does in medically managed patients it will increase the benefits of operation except for patients with two vessel disease over 70 years of age. Conversely, if HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors do not influence the course of coronary artery disease after bypass, the benefits of operation over medical treatment with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors are either reduced or lost completely, ranging from a loss of -5.6 QALYs for a 40 year old with two vessel disease to a gain of 1.5 QALYs for 55 to 60 year old patients with left main stem disease.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although their effect on the progression of coronary artery disease after bypass must be defined, it is probable that HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors will produce considerable gains in life expectancy for patients with coronary artery disease.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Nenagh Hospital, County Tipperary, Ireland.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kellett
mesh_terms: D000214:Acyl Coenzyme A / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003131:Combined Modality Therapy; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D015996:Survival Rate
chemical_list: D000214:Acyl Coenzyme A; C008047:3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A