title: [Future population growth in the Augsburg area--model calculations using the DEPOP model].
abstract: Regional population forecasts are on average even more uncertain than nationwide projections, due to the greater importance of migration and the unstable smaller absolute numbers. Other than national projections, local or regional calculations do normally have an explicit goal. In this paper, a projection of the population and age structure in the region of Augsburg is used to demonstrate some specific aspects of local population projections used for public health purposes. If institutions of childhood ages are to be projected the results are primarily determined by the assumptions on migration. If questions of old age are to be answered, the main factor of influence is the development in mortality. Depending on the specific alm of a local population projection, the principal insecurity about the future should be integrated by calculating confidence bands for those demographic parameters, that are most important for the specific question.
authors.affiliation: Universität Bamberg.
authors.forename: R H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Dinkel
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Wagner
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005858:Germany; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011158:Population Growth; D011247:Pregnancy; D011634:Public Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012040:Regional Health Planning / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
vernacular_title: Die zukünftige Bevölkerungsentwicklung im Raum Augsburg--Modellrechnungen mit dem DEPOP-Modell.