Utility of catalytic models in the estimation of incidence and prevalence of malaria in a hyperendemic situation.
Simple catalytic models were used for estimating the true incidence of malaria in hyperendemic villages of Koraput District in Orissa State where Plasmodium falciparum is predominant. The hill top villages recorded a slide positive rate of 45.68. The daily rate of inoculation among infants was estimated to be 0.00781. The inoculation rate was so high that the recovery from one infection was compensated by the subsequent infection and hence the prevalence continued to increase with age. The model adequately represents the observed data for infants but could not be used for estimating the true prevalence in the adult population without incorporating other factors like immunity and superinfection.
Manoharan
A
A
Vector Control Research Centre, Indira Nagar, Pondicherry, India.
Jambulingam
P
P
Das
P K
PK
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology; D007223:Infant; D016778:Malaria, Falciparum / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015995:Prevalence