title: What predicts gastroenterologists' and surgeons' diagnosis and management of common bile duct stones?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Because the literature suggests numerous indicators of common bile duct stones, we undertook a systematic assessment of physicians' judgments of the clinical utility of eight indicators: patient age, history of jaundice, history of pancreatitis, levels of serum alanine aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, amylase, and total bilirubin, and common bile duct diameter on ultrasonography.
  
  
  METHODS
  Random samples of 1500 gastroenterologists and 1500 surgeons were sent a survey asking them to indicate the importance of each potential indicator of common bile duct stones, the likelihood of common bile duct stones for each of nine clinical vignettes, and whether they would order a preoperative ERCP. An abbreviated survey was sent to nonrespondents.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Although there was substantial variation in the importances assigned to each indicator, the most important indicators were serum total bilirubin and diameter of common bile duct on ultrasound. The best predictors of the decision to order an ERCP were perceived likelihood of stones and specialty. The average threshold for ordering an ERCP was 37%. Respondents did not differ from nonrespondents in the perceived importance of the eight indicators.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The substantial variation among gastroenterologists and surgeons regarding the optimal approach to common bile duct stones has clinical implications. Patients will receive varying recommendations for care, depending on whom they see.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, the Wharton School, and the Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 19104-2676, USA.
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Shea
authors.forename: D A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Asch
authors.forename: R F
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Johnson
authors.forename: R N
authors.initials: RN
authors.lastname: Staroscik
authors.forename: P F
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Malet
authors.forename: B J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Pollack
authors.forename: J R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Clarke
authors.forename: P E
authors.initials: PE
authors.lastname: Green
authors.forename: J S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Schwartz
authors.forename: S V
authors.initials: SV
authors.lastname: Williams
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001663:Bilirubin / Q000097:blood; D002760:Cholangiopancreatography, Endoscopic Retrograde; D017081:Cholecystectomy, Laparoscopic; D003135:Common Bile Duct / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D005260:Female; D042882:Gallstones / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000601:surgery*; D005762:Gastroenterology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015588:Observer Variation; D010818:Practice Patterns, Physicians'; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011897:Random Allocation; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014463:Ultrasonography
chemical_list: D001663:Bilirubin