title: Predictors of injury mortality in early childhood.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To study the association between maternal/infant characteristics and mortality from injury for children 0 through 4 years of age.
  
  
  METHODS
  Historical cohort.
  
  
  METHODS
  State of Tennessee.
  
  
  METHODS
  Children 0 through 4 years of age at any time between January 1, 1985 and December 31, 1994. We linked birth certificates and US census data to obtain information on maternal age, race, education, neighborhood income, parity, use of prenatal care, residence location, infant's gender, and gestational age.
  
  
  METHODS
  The outcome was death from injury, as determined from linked death certificates. The incidence density rates for each stratum (defined by maternal/child characteristics) were calculated by dividing the number of injury deaths by child years in the stratum. We used multivariate analysis to assess the independent contribution of each characteristic to risk of injury death.
  
  
  RESULTS
  There were 1 035 504 children 0 through 4 years of age who contributed 3 414 436 child years. There were 803 deaths from injury, ie, 23.5 deaths per 100 000 child years. In the multivariate analysis, children had at least a 50% increased risk of injury mortality if they were born to a mother who had less than a high school education (relative risk [RR] = 2.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.92-4.34) compared with a college education, was <20 years of age (RR = 2.42; 95% CI: 1.76-3.31) compared with >30 years, or had >2 other children (RR = 2.97; 95% CI: 2.29-3.85) compared with no other children. Neither race nor income was significantly associated with childhood injury mortality in the multivariate analysis. Classification of children by maternal education, age, and parity defined a pronounced risk gradient in which high-risk children had an injury mortality rate >15 times that of low-risk children. The steep risk gradient was present for both infants (24-fold increase for high-risk children) and children 1 through 4 years of age (13-fold increase for high-risk children). If the injury mortality rate for all children were equal to that of the low-risk group, 614/803 (76.3%) of injury deaths would not have occurred.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  For young children, maternal education, age, and parity are strongly and independently associated with injury mortality. These factors define a steep gradient of risk, suggesting that many injury deaths could be prevented.
authors.affiliation: Division of General Pediatrics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37232-8555, USA.
authors.forename: S J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Scholer
authors.forename: E F
authors.initials: EF
authors.lastname: Mitchel
authors.forename: W A
authors.initials: WA
authors.lastname: Ray
mesh_terms: D001719:Birth Certificates; D019352:Censuses; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003644:Death Certificates; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005865:Gestational Age; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007182:Income; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008423:Maternal Age; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D010298:Parity; D011295:Prenatal Care; D044469:Racial Groups; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D013714:Tennessee / Q000453:epidemiology; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality* / Q000517:prevention & control