Importance of estimated functional capacity as a predictor of all-cause mortality among patients referred for exercise thallium single-photon emission computed tomography: report of 3,400 patients from a single center.
OBJECTIVE
We sought to determine the relative influence of estimated functional capacity and thallium-201 (Tl-201) single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) findings on prediction of short-term all-cause and cardiac-related mortality.


BACKGROUND
Decreased functional capacity and abnormal Tl-201 SPECT findings are predictive of increased cardiovascular risk and mortality. However, the relative importance of these variables as predictors of all-cause mortality is not well established.


METHODS
Analyses were based on 3,400 consecutive adults undergoing symptom-limited exercise Tl-201 SPECT testing at the Cleveland Clinic Foundation between September 1990 and December 1993; none had previous invasive procedures, heart failure or valve disease. Estimated functional capacity, classified by age and gender, and thallium perfusion defects, expressed as a stress extent thallium score on a 12-segment scale, were analyzed to determine their relative prognostic importance during 2 years of follow-up.


RESULTS
Of 3,400 patients, 108 (3.2%) died during follow-up; 32 deaths were identified as cardiac related. On univariable analysis, estimated functional capacity was a strong predictor of death, with 62 (57%) deaths occurring in patients achieving < 6 metabolic equivalents (METs) (log-rank chi-square 86, p < 0.0001). On multivariable analysis, the strongest independent predictors of all-cause mortality were fair or poor functional capacity (adjusted relative risk [RR] 3.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36 to 6.64, chi-square 27, p < 0.0001) and age (adjusted RR for 10 years 2.25, 95% CI 1.80 to 2.80, chi-square 27, p < 0.0001). The presence of SPECT thallium perfusion defects was a less powerful predictor of death (for each two additional segments with defects, adjusted RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.43, chi-square 5, p = 0.02). Cardiac mortality was predicted by both fair or poor functional capacity (adjusted RR 4.37, 95% CI 1.59 to 12.00, chi-square 8, p = 0.004) and by stress extent thallium score (adjusted RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.11, chi-square 13, p = 0.0003).


CONCLUSIONS
In this clinically low risk group, estimated functional capacity was a strong and overwhelmingly important independent predictor of all-cause mortality among patients undergoing exercise Tl-201 SPECT testing. The extent of myocardial perfusion defects was of comparable importance for the prediction of cardiac mortality.
Snader
C E
CE
Department of Cardiology, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Ohio 44195, USA.
Marwick
T H
TH
Pashkow
F J
FJ
Harvey
S A
SA
Thomas
J D
JD
Lauer
M S
MS
D000328:Adult; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000503:physiopathology; D005080:Exercise Test; D017079:Exercise Tolerance; D005260:Female; D006331:Heart Diseases / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D013794:Thallium Radioisotopes; D015899:Tomography, Emission-Computed, Single-Photon
D013794:Thallium Radioisotopes