Variance-component modeling in the analysis of receiver operating characteristic index estimates.
OBJECTIVE
The authors performed this study to clarify and systematize the large number of variances and correlations observable with variance-component models of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) index estimates.


METHODS
The authors present a variance-component model for ROC index estimates (and for differences between estimates) and show correspondences between the method of experimental replication and the random components in the model. The authors introduce a notation that identifies both the method of replication and, when examining estimate differences, the estimate pairing scheme.


RESULTS
For models with three factors (modality, reader, case sample), the authors delineated four methods of replication and eight pairing schemes for generating estimate differences. For each of the resulting 32 replication-pairing combinations, the authors gave expressions for the variance of the difference and for the correlation between the two ROC index estimates.


CONCLUSIONS
The variance-component approach is a useful statistical tool for modeling different sources of variation that contribute to the overall variance of ROC data and index estimates derived from those data.
Roe
C A
CA
Department of Radiology, University of Chicago Medical Center, IL 60637-1470, USA.
Metz
C E
CE
D000704:Analysis of Variance; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012372:ROC Curve