title: Local population differences and the needs of people with cognitive impairment.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Variations in local population age structure have attracted less attention than national population ageing. As moderate and severe cognitive impairment is a major cause of need for long-term care, population-based estimates of the numbers and characteristics of this group were calculated, to explore the effects of local differences.
  
  
  METHODS
  The UK Office of Population Census and Surveys (OPCS) study of disability in adults (N > 14000) was reanalysed. A group with moderate or severe cognitive impairments was identified and age-specific estimators of sociodemographic characteristics, household types, disabilities and service use were combined with population estimates for district health authorities in England and Wales.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The proportion of the 65 plus population who are 85 plus varies from 8% to 15% across districts, equivalent to national population projections for 1986 and 2031 respectively. The estimated prevalence of the study group varies from 53 to 70 per 1000 population aged 65 plus, with 34-48% of cases aged 85 plus. Curiously, the proportion with severe disabilities varies little across districts. If national norms applied, local rates of institutionalization would vary from 18 to 27 per 1000 aged 65 plus.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Local differences in population age structure age large compared to national changes over decades. Local differences have substantial effects on overall prevalence and on the proportion of the cognitively impaired who would be institutionalized if national patterns applied. Service design should be influenced by these complex variations, with estimates modified by local surveys.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, UK. dm214@medschl.cam.ac.uk
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Melzer
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ely
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Brayne
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D016208:Databases, Factual / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003858:Dependency, Psychological; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006299:Health Services for the Aged / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006306:Health Surveys; D019456:Health Transition; D006801:Humans; D007326:Institutionalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D019965:Neurocognitive Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D014852:Wales / Q000453:epidemiology