title: [A mathematical model of pre-epidemic circulation: an analysis of the mechanisms of oriented transformation].
abstract: The probable mechanisms of the regulation of the clonal composition of the infective agent in the course of its pre-epidemic circulation are studied. The mathematical model (in the form of two subsystems) describes asymptomatic circulation and the dynamics of the clonal composition: the beginning of the active circulation of faintly virulent variants, the oriented selection of virulent variants and the fixation of the epidemic variant.
authors.forename: I D
authors.initials: ID
authors.lastname: Kolesin
mesh_terms: D003001:Cloning, Molecular; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014644:Genetic Variation; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D014774:Virulence