Mathematical models of disease transmission: a precious tool for the study of sexually transmitted diseases.
This paper is an introduction to the mathematical epidemiology of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and its application to public health. After a brief introduction to transmission dynamics models, the construction of a deterministic compartmental mathematical model of HIV transmission in a population is described. As a background to STD transmission dynamics, basic reproductive rate, intergroup mixing, rate of partner change, and duration of infectivity are discussed. Use of the models illustrates the effect of sexual mixing (proportionate to highly assortative), of preventive intervention campaigns, and of HIV-chlamydia interaction on HIV prevalence in the different population groups. In particular, planned prevention campaigns can benefit the targeted intervention group but surprisingly can be disadvantageous for the general population. Through examples, mathematical models are shown to be helpful in our understanding of disease transmission, in interpretation of observed trends, in planning of prevention strategies, and in guiding data collection.
Boily
M C
MC
Groupe de Recherche en Epidémiologie, Hôpital du St-Sacrement, Université Laval. mcboily@gre.ulaval.ca
Mâsse
B
B
D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008433:Mathematics; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D011634:Public Health; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D012747:Sexual Partners; D012749:Sexually Transmitted Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D013997:Time Factors