title: A novel prognostic scoring system to predict late outcome after percutaneous balloon valvotomy in patients with severe mitral stenosis.
abstract: We developed a prognostic scoring system to predict the outcome of follow-up after balloon mitral valvotomy. The system incorporates seven variables before valvotomy: age, New York Heart Association class, fluoroscopic calcification, echocardiographic score, cardiac rhythm, mitral regurgitation, and mitral valve area. Each variable was coded with either 0 or 1 and a total score was between 0 and 7. The study included 150 patients with a mean follow-up of 33 +/- 24 months. In patients with scores of 0-1, 2-3, 4-5, and 6-7, the estimated cardiac event-free survival rate was 97%, 94%, 86%, and 68%, respectively, at 1 year; 95%, 88%, 74%, and 47%, respectively, at 3 years; and 92%, 82%, 61%, and 30%, respectively, 5 years after valvotomy (p = 0.0001). The hazard risk ratio for cardiac events was 1.7 times greater for every step up of the score (p = 0.0001). Our scoring system provides a simple but effective method to predict late outcome of balloon mitral valvotomy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, White Memorial Medical Center, Los Angeles, Calif., USA.
authors.forename: H P
authors.initials: HP
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: C E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Ruiz
authors.forename: J W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Allen
authors.forename: F Y
authors.initials: FY
authors.lastname: Lau
mesh_terms: D002404:Catheterization; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D004452:Echocardiography; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D008946:Mitral Valve Stenosis / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000473:pathology / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000628:therapy*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome