title: Predictive value of clinical indices in detecting aspiration in patients with neurological disorders.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  (1) To evaluate the predictive value of a detailed clinical screening of aspiration in patients with neurological diseases, both with and without symptoms of dysphagia taking videofluoroscopy as the gold standard; (2) to assess the existence of risk factors for silent aspiration, measuring the cost-benefit ratio of radiological examination.
  
  
  METHODS
  93 consecutive patients meeting the diagnostic criteria for a neurological disease with a risk of swallowing dysfunctions (cerebrovascular accidents, brain injury, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, myotonic dystrophy, and abiotrophic diseases) underwent a detailed clinical assessment using a 25 item form to check for symptoms of dysphagia and impairment of the oropharyngeal swallowing mechanism. The 3 oz water swallow test was also performed to assess the aspiration risk. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive, and negative predictive values (NPV) of dysphagia, history of cough on swallowing, and 3 oz test positivity, versus videofluoroscopy documented aspiration, taken as the gold standard, were measured in all the patients and in subgroups with different neurological disorders.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Non-specific complaints of dysphagia showed a very poor predictive value, whereas the symptom "cough on swallowing" proved to be the most reliable in predicting the risk of aspiration, with 74% sensitivity and specificity, 71% positive predictive, and 77% negative predictive value. The standardised 3-oz test had a higher predictive potential than the clinical signs, but had low sensitivity. The association of cough on swallowing with the 3 oz test gave a positive predictive of 84%, and an negative predictive value of 78%. In cases where the clinical tests failed to detect any impairment, videofluoroscopy documented only a low risk (20%) for mild aspiration.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The association of two clinical items (such as history of cough on swallowing and 3 oz test positivity) provides a useful screening tool, the cost:benefit ratio of which seems very competitive in comparison with videofluoroscopy in aspiration risk evaluation.
authors.affiliation: Nervous System Disease Institute, University of Ancona, Italy.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Mari
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Matei
authors.forename: M G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Ceravolo
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pisani
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Montesi
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Provinciali
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001927:Brain Diseases / Q000150:complications* / Q000473:pathology; D003371:Cough; D003680:Deglutition Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology*; D005163:Factor Analysis, Statistical; D005260:Female; D005471:Fluoroscopy; D006801:Humans; D001239:Inhalation; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests