title: A revised assessment of the HIV/AIDS incubation period, assuming a very short early period of high infectivity and using only San Francisco public health data on prevalence and incidence.
abstract: A revised assessment of the HIV/AIDS incubation period has been made, based on an updated operational model that includes a very short early period of high infectivity, following recent work by Jacquez et al. and using AIDS incidence data from the San Francisco Department of Public Health, plus data on AIDS incidence and HIV prevalence in a specially recruited cohort from the San Francisco City Clinic. The incubation period has, approximately, a suitably scaled gamma distribution with 14 degrees of freedom and mean 12.8 (SE 0.2) years. This information is essential in interpreting data from other areas and regions where AIDS incidence figures only are available, and is in particular intended for applications to several countries in Europe.
authors.affiliation: Chalet Chrine, Lauenen, Switzerland.
authors.forename: N T
authors.initials: NT
authors.lastname: Bailey
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D000328:Adult; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003625:Data Collection; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D011634:Public Health; D012495:San Francisco