title: Predictive factors of survival and intrahepatic recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis after percutaneous ethanol injection: analysis of 71 patients.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study was undertaken to determine the factors predicting survival and intrahepatic recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with percutaneous ethanol injection.
  
  
  METHODS
  Seventy-one patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma underwent percutaneous ethanol injection (54 males/17 females; median age 66 years; Child A 54/B 17). Fifty-two patients had a single nodule < or = 5 cm and 19 had multiple nodules, up to three, each one < or = 4 cm. Follow-up ranged from 2-63 months (median 26).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Overall survival rates were 89%, 54% and 24% and new lesions recurrence rates 32%, 73% and 81% at 1, 3 and 5 years, respectively. At univariate analysis, monofocal tumor (p<0.05), absence of ascites (p<0.05), complete tumor necrosis at CT-scan or MRI (p<0.01), post-treatment alpha-fetoprotein < or = 10 ng/ml (p<0.05) and Child A class in patients with a single nodule (p<0.05) were associated with higher survival. Presence of tumor capsule at imaging (p<0.05), complete tumor necrosis at CT-scan or MRI (p<0.01) and post-treatment alpha-fetoprotein < or = 10 ng/ml (p<0.01) were associated with lower recurrence rates. At multivariate analysis, basal alpha-fetoprotein (p=0.040) and tumor number (p=0.032) significantly affected survival; stepwise analysis revealed basal alpha-fetoprotein, tumor number and serum albumin (p=0.0012) as the best combination predicting survival. No variable reliably predicted recurrence by multivariate analysis.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, treated with percutaneous ethanol injection, survival depends on: the severity of the underlying liver disease, uni/multifocality of the tumor and basal alpha-fetoprotein. Presence of a tumor capsule is associated with lower recurrence rates. At post-treatment evaluation, both survival and recurrence rates are positively affected by complete tumor necrosis and alpha-fetoprotein < or = 10 ng/ml.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, II Ateneo University of Naples, Italy.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Castellano
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Calandra
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Del Vecchio Blanco
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: de Sio
mesh_terms: D000279:Administration, Cutaneous; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy; D000431:Ethanol / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local; D011379:Prognosis; D015996:Survival Rate; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D000431:Ethanol