Threshold parameters for a simple stochastic partnership model of sexually transmitted diseases formulated as a two-type CMJ process.
A simple stochastic model describing an epidemic of a sexually transmitted disease, accommodating the formation and dissolution of partnerships, was formulated within a two-type Crump-Mode-Jagers (CMJ) process in continuous time. A submodel, describing the formation and dissolution of partnerships, was formulated in terms of a semi-Markov process with a finite state space and death as an absorbing state. This model was then linked to a two-type CMJ process through offspring distributions. Numerical values of threshold parameters greater than one suggests that either the epidemic dies out with a probability significantly different form zero or it spreads explosively in the population.
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Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Drexel University, Philadelphiam, PA 19104, USA.
D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011336:Probability; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D012749:Sexually Transmitted Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000635:transmission*; D013269:Stochastic Processes