Estimation of economic values of indices for reproductive performance in dairy herds using computer simulation.
Relationships between measures for reproductive performance and net revenue were studied using data that had been generated by a stochastic model in a computer simulation program for Ontario dairy herds. These measures included projected calving interval, involuntary culling rate, and adjusted calving interval. Adjusted calving interval was calculated by dividing the projected calving interval for pregnant cows by the fraction of the cows that were not culled for reproductive failure. The regression of adjusted calving interval on net revenue had an R2 of 0.72, which was higher than the R2 of 0.59 obtained by the regression of projected calving interval on net revenue. Hence, the estimation of financial losses from suboptimal reproductive performance was more accurate when adjusted calving interval was used as a measure of this performance than when projected calving interval was used. This difference is because projected calving interval did not consider cows that were culled for reproductive reasons, but those cows contributed to a reduction in profit because of suboptimal reproductive performance. The highest R2 (0.78) was obtained with a model that included projected calving interval and involuntary culling rate. However, use of that model might not be practical because herd operators differ in their ability to distinguish between involuntary and voluntary culling. The mean reduction in net revenue from a 1-d increase in adjusted calving interval was estimated at $4.7 (Canadian) per cow. This economic value was not significantly affected by level of adjusted calving interval, carcass price, feed costs, cost of a replacement heifer, or milk price.
Plaizier
J C
JC
Department of Animal and Poultry Science, University of Guelph, ON, Canada.
King
G J
GJ
Dekkers
J C
JC
Lissemore
K
K
D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle / Q000502:physiology*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D003612:Dairying / Q000191:economics*; D005260:Female; D008954:Models, Biological; D011247:Pregnancy; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012098:Reproduction / Q000502:physiology*; D013997:Time Factors