title: Risk and protective factors as predictors of adolescent alcohol involvement and transitions in alcohol use: a prospective analysis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Determinants of initial alcohol use may differ from predictors of accelerated or problematic consumption. Social influences may be strong predictors of initial drinking; however, later stages of problem drinking may be linked developmentally to intrapersonal deficits. This study prospectively examined the influence of chronic and changing risk and protective status in predicting adolescent alcohol involvement and transitions in alcohol use.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data were obtained from a three-wave cohort (N = 823) of 8th-10th grade nonintervention students participating in a school-based drug abuse prevention trial. Cognitive, attitudinal and social influence measures were dichotomized using empirical cut-offs to designate risk or protective status. Using a conceptually based assignment scheme, additive risk indices were created assessing chronic (averaging across time) and changing features of competence, psychological and interpersonal functioning, cognitive-affective and social influences. Three chronic and change protective indices were created tapping competence, psychological, and interpersonal functioning.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Controlling for initial drinking and gender, chronic risk for social influence and psychological functioning and increased risk for social influences and competency predicted subsequent drinking behavior. Chronic psychological protection attenuated subsequent drinking. Using categorical measures of drinking behavior to designate nonuse, experimental or moderate-heavy use, chronic social influence and competency risk were associated with an increased likelihood of accelerated drinking, whereas improved psychological functioning diminished the likelihood of increased drinking behavior.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Findings underscore the need for implementing prevention strategies that reinforce developmentally appropriate skills and enhance personal competence and psychological functioning as effective barriers against initial and more problematic alcohol use. The unique contribution of protective forces also underscores that risk reduction and protection enhancement are complementary processes and are both required to offset social influences for alcohol consumption.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Cornell University Medical College, New York, N.Y. 10021, USA.
authors.forename: L M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Scheier
authors.forename: G J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Botvin
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Baker
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000523:psychology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003674:Defense Mechanisms; D006266:Health Education; D006801:Humans; D007398:Interpersonal Relations; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012917:Social Adjustment; D012932:Social Facilitation; D013334:Students / Q000523:psychology