Behavioural factors in accidents at road junctions: the use of a genetic algorithm to extract descriptive rules from police case files.
In-depth studies of behavioural factors in road accidents using conventional methods are often inconclusive and costly. To explore an alternative approach, 200 cross-flow junction road accidents were sampled from the files of Nottinghamshire Constabulary, England, coded for computer analysis using a specially devised 'Traffic Related Action Analysis Language', and then examined using a genetic algorithm (or 'rule-finder' program). For comparison, the same analyses were carried out on 100 descriptions of safe turns, and 100 of hypothetical accident descriptions provided by experienced drivers. A number of findings emerged, distinguishing between accidents turning onto and off major roads; those of younger and older drivers; those that resulted in injury or in damage only; and so on. The study suggests that multiple case-studies based on police case files could be very promising, provided homogeneous samples of accidents are used. Genetic algorithms could play a useful role in preliminary assessment, but an 'information bottleneck' remains to be overcome in capturing enough detail from each case for analysis.
Clarke
D D
DD
Department of Psychology, University of Nottingham, University Park, U.K. ddc@psychology.nottingham.ac.uk
Forsyth
R
R
Wright
R
R
D000063:Accidents, Traffic; D000328:Adult; D000465:Algorithms; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012984:Software