Analysis of screening data: colorectal cancer.
BACKGROUND
This paper illustrates how data gathered from an existing screening programme against colorectal cancer can be used to produce new information on the natural history of colorectal cancer as well as the characteristics of the unhydrated Hemoccult II screening test.


METHODS
A mathematical model is used, which on the basis of prevalence and interval incidence data from a randomized screening project initiated in Funen County, Denmark, estimates the sensitivity of the screening test and the sojourn time of the disease.


RESULTS
The sensitivity of the Hemoccult is estimated at 62.1% and the mean sojourn time is estimated to be 2.1 years.


CONCLUSIONS
The short sojourn time indicates that overall effectiveness of a Hemoccult II screening programme can be improved significantly by more frequent screening.
Gyrd-Hansen
D
D
Centre for Health and Social Policy, Odense, Denmark.
Søgaard
J
J
Kronborg
O
O
D000368:Aged; D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D003718:Denmark / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009780:Occult Blood; D015995:Prevalence; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity