Time trends in HIV infection among pregnant women in Europe.
OBJECTIVE
To estimate time trends in HIV prevalence among pregnant women delivering livebirths in 14 European countries using a uniform methodology.


METHODS
A form of back-projection was used to estimate HIV prevalence among pregnant women based on reported cases of AIDS due to perinatally acquired HIV infection. The method used estimates the rate of progression to AIDS in children with HIV, and the rate of transmission of HIV from mother to child, derived from published studies.


RESULTS
The prevalence of HIV among pregnant women delivering livebirths was estimated to be highest in Spain (2.61 per 1000 livebirths in 1992-1993), relatively high (> or = 0.3 per 1000 livebirths) throughout the period 1984-1993 in France, Italy and Switzerland, and low (< 0.2 per 1000 livebirths) in Germany, The Netherlands and Scandinavia. There were large and statistically significant increasing trends in the estimated HIV prevalence among pregnant women in Portugal (an estimated 77% increase per 2-year period), Spain (40% increase) and the United Kingdom (77% increase; all P < 0.001). Statistically significant increasing trends of a smaller magnitude were estimated for France (24% increase) and Italy (23% increase; both P < 0.001).


CONCLUSIONS
Sharp increases in HIV prevalence among pregnant women were estimated for several European countries, whereas in other countries no trends in the estimated prevalence were detected.
Law
M G
MG
National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, The University of New South Wales, Darlinghurst, Australia.
Downs
A M
AM
Brunet
J B
JB
Kaldor
J M
JM
D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical; D008297:Male; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D011247:Pregnancy; D011251:Pregnancy Complications, Infectious / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D013997:Time Factors