Use of postoperative information to predict mortality rates for patients who have long stays in the intensive care unit after coronary artery bypass grafting.
OBJECTIVE
To derive and evaluate prediction models for patients who had undergone coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and had a difficult postoperative course.


METHODS
Observational.


METHODS
Midwestern hospital specializing in high-risk CABG procedures.


METHODS
One hundred eighty-three patients who stayed at least 10 consecutive days in the intensive care unit after a CABG procedure.


METHODS
Death within 60 days of surgery.


METHODS
None.


RESULTS
The final logistic regression prediction models included the following findings: pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, cardiac index, heart rate, urine output, positive end-expiratory pressure, blood urea nitrogen levels, and the arterial pressure of carbon dioxide. The model was able to stratify patients into four risk groups with observed 60-day mortality rates of 0.0% (n = 107), 21% (n = 39), 55% (n = 20), and 88% (n = 17). Preoperative patient information was not associated with prognosis for these patients.


CONCLUSIONS
The findings suggest that a risk model that is specific for patients who have undergone CABG and is based on postoperative findings may provide useful prognostic information for patients who are having a difficult postoperative course.
Hartz
A
A
Department of Family Medicine, University of Iowa College of Medicine, Iowa City 52242-1097, USA.
Guse
C
C
Kayser
K
K
Kuhn
E
E
Johnson
D
D
D000368:Aged; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass / Q000401:mortality*; D005260:Female; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D007362:Intensive Care Units; D007902:Length of Stay; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011184:Postoperative Period; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012042:Registries; D012307:Risk Factors