Potential for prevention of premature death and disease in New Zealand.
OBJECTIVE
To assess the potential for preventing major causes of premature death, disease and injury in New Zealand.


METHODS
Population attributable risks for major modifiable risk factors for important causes of death and disease in New Zealand were calculated using available national and international data on the relative risk of disease and the prevalence of risk factors in the relevant New Zealand population. Attainable changes in risk factor prevalences were used to model population attributable risks over the next five years. These estimates were then used to estimate potential reductions in absolute numbers of deaths from major diseases.


RESULTS
High population attributable risks were found for several disease/risk factor combinations: smoking and lung cancer (81% in Maori), smoking and coronary heart disease (44% in Maori), smoking and sudden infant death syndrome (49% in Maori); raised serum cholesterol and coronary heart disease (58%); physical inactivity and coronary heart disease (35%), physical inactivity and diabetes (30%), physical inactivity and colorectal cancer (33%), physical inactivity and fractured neck of femur (65%); obesity and hypertension (66%), obesity and diabetes (46%); lack of fruits and vegetables and stomach cancer (46%), and colorectal cancer (34%). The estimated, readily attainable reduction in absolute numbers of annual deaths due to decrease in risk factor prevalence was greatest for smoking (457 deaths), followed by hypertension (326), physical inactivity (303) and raised serum cholesterol (142).


CONCLUSIONS
There is significant scope for reducing mortality from major non-communicable diseases although for some diseases such as the cancers, there will be a time lag of many years before the full benefits are realised. Together, reducing the prevalence of smoking, hypertension, physical inactivity and raised serum cholesterol would result in 1228 fewer deaths per year.
Galgali
G
G
Department of Community Health, Auckland School of Medicine, Auckland.
Beaglehole
R
R
Scragg
R
R
Tobias
M
M
D015444:Exercise; D006801:Humans; D006937:Hypercholesterolemia / Q000453:epidemiology; D006973:Hypertension / Q000453:epidemiology; D009026:Mortality; D009520:New Zealand / Q000453:epidemiology; D011322:Primary Prevention; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology