Risk analysis of quarantine station performance: a case study of the importation of equine infectious anemia virus-infected horses into California.
We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.
Carpenter
T E
TE
Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis 95616, USA.
McBride
M D
MD
Hird
D W
DW
D000818:Animals; D002140:California; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D004859:Equine Infectious Anemia / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission*; D006736:Horses; D016086:Lentivirus / Q000302:isolation & purification; D015995:Prevalence; D011790:Quarantine / Q000662:veterinary*; D018570:Risk Assessment