title: Multivariate model for predicting relapse in human brucellosis.
abstract: Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from 200 consecutive patients with acute brucellosis were analysed with univariate and multivariate methods to identify correlates of relapse. A risk score for predicting relapse was then calculated by using Cox proportional hazard model. The independent predictors of relapse were temperature of 38.3 degrees C or higher, positive blood cultures at baseline, and the duration of symptoms before treatment <10 days. Stratification according to the risk score demonstrated that rates of relapse were significantly different between risk groups (P<0.0001). The low-risk group had a 4.5% probability (6 of 135) of relapse at 12 months. In contrast, relapse was present in 15 of 47 patients in the medium-risk group (P<0.0017); and in 12 of 18 patients in the high-risk group (P<0.0001). This study provides a rational basis for estimating the risk of relapse in patients with acute brucellosis, and may be helpful in deciding what subjects might benefit from extra attention.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Unit of Infectious Diseases, Hospital of Albacete, Spain.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Solera
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Martínez-Alfaro
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Espinosa
authors.forename: M L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Castillejos
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Geijo
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rodríguez-Zapata
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D002006:Brucellosis; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011336:Probability; D012008:Recurrence; D012189:Retrospective Studies
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents