title: The effects of lamivudine treatment on HIV-1 disease progression are highly correlated with plasma HIV-1 RNA and CD4 cell count.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the value of plasma HIV-1 RNA and CD4 cell count as predictors of the clinical benefit of antiretroviral treatment.
  
  
  METHODS
  The CAESAR (Canada, Australia, Europe, South Africa) trial randomized 1840 patients [inclusion CD4 cell count, 25-250 x 10(6)/l] to add either placebo, lamivudine (3TC) or 3TC plus loviride in a double-blinded fashion to baseline treatments (zidovudine, zidovudine-didanosine or zidovudine-zalcitabine) for 1 year.
  
  
  METHODS
  This analysis included 487 patients with data on CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA after 12-20 weeks of treatment and subsequent follow-up for clinical progression.
  
  
  METHODS
  The correlation between 12-20-week change in CD4 cell count, HIV-1 RNA and progression to AIDS or death in the placebo group was used to predict the clinical benefit of the 3TC-containing arms of the trial, given their effects on CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA.
  
  
  RESULTS
  After 12-20 weeks of treatment, HIV-1 RNA fell by 0.37 log10 copies/ml in the 3TC arms versus a rise of 0.05 log10 copies/ml in the placebo arm. The 12-20-week CD4 cell count rose by 35 x 10(6)/l in the 3TC arm versus a fall of 8 x 10(6)/l in the placebo arm. After 12-20 weeks of treatment, a reduction in HIV-1 RNA of 1 log10 at 12-20 weeks predicted a 49% reduction in progression [hazard ratio (HR), 0.51; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.30-0.87] and a rise in CD4 cell count of 50 x 10(6)/l predicted a 51% reduction in progression (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.33-0.73). Using the model from the placebo arm, the rises in CD4 cell count and reductions in HIV-1 RNA during 3TC treatment predicted a 59% reduction in progression to AIDS or death. The observed clinical benefit was a 57% reduction in progression for the 3TC arms versus placebo (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.26-0.71).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Rises in CD4 cell count and reductions in HIV-1 RNA were reliable in predicting the clinical benefit of 3TC in the CAESAR trial.
authors.affiliation: University of British Columbia, St Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, Canada.
authors.forename: J S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Montaner
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: DeMasi
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Hill
mesh_terms: D000081:Acetamides / Q000627:therapeutic use; D000098:Acetophenones / Q000627:therapeutic use; D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000276:immunology / Q000821:virology; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D016049:Didanosine / Q000627:therapeutic use; D018450:Disease Progression; D004311:Double-Blind Method; D004359:Drug Therapy, Combination; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000276:immunology / Q000821:virology; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000187:drug effects / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D019259:Lamivudine / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012367:RNA, Viral / Q000097:blood*; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D019562:Viral Load; D016047:Zalcitabine / Q000627:therapeutic use; D015215:Zidovudine / Q000627:therapeutic use
chemical_list: D000081:Acetamides; D000098:Acetophenones; D019380:Anti-HIV Agents; D012367:RNA, Viral; D019259:Lamivudine; C080073:loviride; D015215:Zidovudine; D016047:Zalcitabine; D016049:Didanosine