title: Sibling models of socioeconomic effects on the timing of first premarital birth.
abstract: Data on 1,000 pairs of sisters from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth are used to estimate the effects of observed individual-level factors, common family-level variables, and shared unobserved family-level traits on the timing of premarital births. Results show a moderate correlated risk of premarital childbearing among siblings after controlling for the effects of measured covariates. The effect of older sisters' out-of-wedlock childbearing on the timing of younger sisters' premarital birth is overestimated when shared unmeasured family-level traits are ignored. Public policy measures designed to reduce premarital births have a smaller multiplier effect via reduced younger sisters' premarital births because unmeasured family-level factors are less amenable to policy measures. However, because the older-sibling effect is large when other sources of variability in premarital birth timing are controlled, interventions may be effective in reducing premarital births among young women in high-risk families.
authors.affiliation: Department of Sociology, University of Texas at Austin 78712, USA. dpowers@mail.la.utexas.edu
authors.forename: D A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Powers
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Hsueh
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005193:Family Planning Services / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007086:Illegitimacy / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011247:Pregnancy; D011253:Pregnancy in Adolescence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011640:Public Policy; D012307:Risk Factors; D012801:Sibling Relations; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014481:United States