Provisional country estimates of prevalent adult human immunodeficiency virus infections as of end 1994: a description of the methods.
BACKGROUND
A country-by-country review of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) data was undertaken by the World Health Organization. This paper describes the methods used to make estimates of HIV prevalence.


RESULTS
It is estimated that, globally, approximately 16.9 million adults were living with HIV infections at the end of 1994. The majority (66%) of the infections were in sub-Saharan Africa (over 11000000), followed by South and South East Asia (over 3000000). Estimated prevalence rates for HIV infection ranged from less than 1 per 100000 sexually active adult population to 18 per 100 (18%), with a median prevalence of 14 per 10000. In 50 countries the estimated HIV prevalence rate was less than 5 per 10000 sexually active adults. In 15 countries (all in sub-Saharan Africa) the prevalence rate was above 5%. The lowest estimated prevalence rates were seen in Central and East Asia and the highest in Central and Southern Africa.


CONCLUSIONS
Estimates of prevalent HIV infections are intended to give an indication of the magnitude of the HIV pandemic but, due to the difficulties in accurately assessing the levels of HIV infections in national populations, should be considered provisional.
Burton
A H
AH
Surveillance, Evaluation, and Forecasting Unit, Global Programme on AIDS, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Mertens
T E
TE
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D003625:Data Collection / Q000379:methods; D003906:Developing Countries; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D015528:HIV Seroprevalence; D006801:Humans; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015995:Prevalence; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D017678:Sex Distribution; D015996:Survival Rate; D014944:World Health Organization