Predictors of mortality from fires in young children.
BACKGROUND
In the United States in 1994, fires claimed 3.75 lives per 100 000 child years and accounted for 17.3% of all injury deaths in children <5 years of age.


OBJECTIVE
To conduct a historical cohort study that uses maternal demographic characteristics to identify young children at high risk of fire-related deaths, thus defining appropriate targets for prevention programs.


METHODS
The cohort consisted of children born to mothers who resided in the state of Tennessee between 1980 and 1995. Information was obtained by linking birth certificates, 1990 census data, and death certificates. Children were eligible for the study if they were <5 years of age at any time within the study period and if key study variables were present (99.2% of births). Birth certificates provided information on maternal characteristics including age, race, education, previous live births, use of prenatal care, and residence (in standard metropolitan statistical area). Child characteristics included gender, gestational age, and birth type (singleton/multiple gestation). Neighborhood income was estimated by linking the mother's address at the time of birth to the 1990 census (block group mean per capita income). The study outcome was a fire resulting in at least one fatality (fatal fire event) during the study period, identified from death certificates (coded E880 through E889 in the International Classification of Diseases, 9th rev). We calculated the fatal fire event rate corresponding to each stratum of maternal/child characteristics. We assessed the independent association between each characteristic and the risk of a fatal fire event from a Poisson regression multivariate analysis.


RESULTS
During the study period, 1 428 694 children contributed 5 415 213 child years to the cohort: there were 270 deaths from fire (4.99 deaths per 100 000 child years) and 231 fatal fire events. In the multivariate analysis, factors associated with greater than a threefold increase in fatal fire events included maternal education, age, and number of other children. Compared with children whose mothers had a college education, children whose mothers had less than a high school education had 19.4 times (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-142.4) an increased risk of a fatal fire event. Children whose mothers had more than two other children had 6.1 times (95% CI, 3.8-9.8) an increased risk of a fatal fire event compared with children whose mothers had no other children. Children of mothers <20 years of age had 3.9 times (95% CI, 2.2-7.1) increased risk of a fatal fire event compared with children whose mothers were >/=30 years old. Although both maternal neighborhood income and race were associated strongly with increased rates of fatal fire events in the univariate analysis, this association did not persist in the multivariate analysis. Other factors that were associated with increased risk of fatal fire events in the multivariate analysis were male gender and having a mother who was unmarried or who had delayed prenatal care. The three factors associated most strongly with fire mortality were combined to create a risk score based on maternal education (>/=16 years, 0 points; 13 to 15 years, 1 point; 12 years, 2 points; <12 years, 3 points); age (>/=30 years, 0 points; 25 to 29 years, 1 point; 20 to 24 years, 2 points; <20 years, 3 points); and number of other children (none, 0 points; one, 1 point; two, 2 points; three or more, 3 points). The lowest-risk group (score <3) included 19% of the population and had 0.19 fatal fire events per 100 000 child years. In contrast, highest-risk children (score >7) comprised 1.5% of the population and had 28.6 fatal fire events per 100 000 child years, 150 times higher than low-risk children. Children with risk scores >5 contributed 26% of child years but experienced 68% of all fatal fire events. If the fatal fire event rate for all children had been equal to that of the low-risk group (risk score <3), then 95% of deaths from
Scholer
S J
SJ
Department of Pediatrics, Division of General Pediatrics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37232-8555, USA.
Hickson
G B
GB
Mitchel
E F
EF
Ray
W A
WA
D002056:Burns / Q000401:mortality*; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005260:Female; D005390:Fires / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013714:Tennessee / Q000453:epidemiology