title: Determination and validation of a predictive model for Clostridium difficile diarrhea in hospitalized oncology patients.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Clostridium difficile colitis in the cancer patient receiving chemotherapy is a frequent cause of morbidity which may prolong hospitalization. Techniques for identifying infection often delay the initiation of therapy.
  
  
  METHODS
  In this retrospective case-control analysis, we identified predictors for C. difficile-associated diarrhea in 29 patients hospitalized from 1988 to 1993 on a hematologic malignancy/bone marrow transplant unit (hospital A). We then validated our model with 58 C. difficile cases and 74 controls admitted to an oncology unit from a different institution (hospital B).
  
  
  RESULTS
  We found that low intensity of chemotherapy (P < 0.001), lack of parenteral vancomycin use (P = 0.03) and hospitalization within the past two months (P = 0.05) were independently predictive of C. difficile colitis by multivariate analysis. These variables were weighted for predictive capability using a receiver operator characteristic score; low intensity chemotherapy was assigned two points, lack of parenteral vancomycin received one point and prior hospitalization one point (P < 0.001 by chi 2 for trend). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve areas were 0.78 for patients at hospital A and 0.70 at hospital B indicating moderate drop off in discrimination. Compared to hospital A patients, hospital B patients hospitalized between 1989 and 1994 were more often women (P = 0.04), received less systemic vancomycin (P = 0.01), were less frequently neutropenic (P < 0.05), and received less intense chemotherapy regimens (P < 0.05). Despite these differences in demographics in patients between these institutions, our predictive model was validated in hospital B patients (P = 0.02 by chi 2 for trend).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results of this study may help clinicians predict the risk of C. difficile disease in the hospitalized immunocompromised oncology patient and may help guide empiric therapy while awaiting results of stool toxin assays.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, University Hospitals of Cleveland, Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, OH, USA.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hornbuckle
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Chak
authors.forename: H M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Lazarus
authors.forename: G S
authors.initials: GS
authors.lastname: Cooper
authors.forename: L A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Kutteh
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Gucalp
authors.forename: P S
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Carlisle
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Sparano
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Parker
authors.forename: R A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Salata
mesh_terms: D016022:Case-Control Studies; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D016360:Clostridioides difficile / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D003428:Cross Infection / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004761:Enterocolitis, Pseudomembranous / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D019337:Hematologic Neoplasms / Q000150:complications; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007902:Length of Stay; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors