title: Gallstone pancreatitis: a prospective study on the incidence of cholangitis and clinical predictors of retained common bile duct stones.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to define the incidence of cholangitis in gallstone pancreatitis, in the absence of cholangitis, to identify the clinical predictors of persistent common bile duct (CBD) stones at endoscopic retrograde cholangiography (ERCP) or at intraoperative cholangiography (IOC).
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 122 consecutive patients with acute gallstone pancreatitis were prospectively evaluated for the presence of CBD stones as determined by elective ERCP or IOC. Urgent ERCP was restricted to patients with concomitant cholangitis. APACHE II scores and serial laboratory data were obtained.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Four (3%) patients had cholangitis and all underwent urgent ERCP successfully. Eighteen (15%) patients without cholangiogram were excluded. The remaining 100 patients underwent elective ERCP or IOC on a mean of hospital day 6.8. Twenty-one (21%) patients had persistent CBD stones. Univariate analysis detected significant differences in serum total bilirubin, ALT, and alkaline phosphatase levels between patients with and without persistent CBD stones. On multivariate analysis, serum total bilirubin on hospital day 2 was the best predictor of CBD stones. A serum total bilirubin level > 1.35 mg/dl had a sensitivity of 90.5% and specificity of 63%. Age, gender, mean APACHE II score, amylase, and presence of CBD dilation on ultrasound were not predictive of CBD stones.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In patients with gallstone pancreatitis, 1) cholangitis is uncommon, and 2) the best clinical predictor of persistent CBD stones is serum total bilirubin on hospital day 2.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles School of Medicine, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center 90509, USA.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.forename: S K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Lo
authors.forename: B E
authors.initials: BE
authors.lastname: Stabile
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Lewis
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: de Virgilio
mesh_terms: D018806:APACHE; D000208:Acute Disease; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001663:Bilirubin / Q000097:blood; D002758:Cholangiography; D002760:Cholangiopancreatography, Endoscopic Retrograde; D002761:Cholangitis / Q000209:etiology*; D002769:Cholelithiasis / Q000150:complications*; D042882:Gallstones / Q000209:etiology*; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D010195:Pancreatitis / Q000150:complications*; D011446:Prospective Studies
chemical_list: D001663:Bilirubin