The risk of disease progression is determined during the first year of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection.
A cohort of 103 human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected persons with well-defined dates of seroconversion were studied to determine whether baseline plasma HIV RNA loads 6-12 months after seroconversion have prognostic value. Baseline plasma virus loads had predictive value for the disease-free survival rate and for the survival rate. The level of baseline HIV RNA also had a strong negative predictive value for the CD4+ T cell count during the fifth year of infection: A baseline load >5 log was predictive of a CD4+ T cell count <500/mm3 5 years after infection. Baseline HIV RNA load was a CD4+ T cell-independent predictor of progression to death. The major finding was that the disease outcome for HIV-1-infected persons is already determined during the first year of infection.
Lefrère
J J
JJ
Institut National de la Transfusion Sanguine Laboratoire de Virologie, Hôpital Saint-Antoine, Paris, France. lefrere@worldnet.fr
Roudot-Thoraval
F
F
Mariotti
M
M
Thauvin
M
M
Lerable
J
J
Salpétrier
J
J
Morand-Joubert
L
L
D000328:Adult; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000276:immunology / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology* / Q000821:virology; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000235:genetics; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012367:RNA, Viral / Q000097:blood; D012307:Risk Factors; D017741:Survivors; D013997:Time Factors; D019562:Viral Load
D012367:RNA, Viral