title: Predictors of occult pneumococcal bacteremia in young febrile children.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Occult pneumococcal bacteremia (OPB) occurs in 2.5% to 3% of highly febrile children 3 to 36 months of age, and 10% to 25% of untreated patients with OPB experience complications, including 3% to 6% in whom meningitis develops. The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of OPB among a large cohort of young, febrile children treated as outpatients using multivariable statistical methods.
  
  
  METHODS
  We derived and validated a logistic regression model for the prediction of OPB. We evaluated 6,579 outpatients 3 to 36 months of age with temperatures of 39 degrees C or higher who previously had been enrolled in a study of young febrile patients at risk of OPB in the emergency departments of 10 hospitals in the United States between 1987 and 1991; 164 patients (2.5%) had OPB. We randomly selected two thirds of this population for the derivation of the model and one third for validation. In the derivation set, we analyzed the univariate relationships of six variables with OPB: age, temperature, clinical score, WBC count, absolute neutrophil count (ANC), and absolute band count (ABC). All six variables were then entered into a logistic regression equation and those retaining statistical significance were considered to have an independent association with OPB.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Patients with OPB were younger, more frequently ill-appearing, and had higher temperatures, WBC, ANC, and ABC than patients without bacteremia. Only three variables, however, retained statistically significant associations with OPB in the multivariate analysis: ANC (Adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.15 for each 1,000 cells/mm3 increase, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06, 1.25), temperature (adjusted OR 1.77 for each 1 degree C increase, 95% CI 1.21, 2.58), and age younger than 2 years (adjusted OR 2.43 versus patients 2 to 3 years old, 95% CI interval 1.11, 5.34). In the derivation set, 8.1% of patients with ANCs greater than or equal to 10,000 cell/mm3 had OPB (95% CI 6.3, 10.1%) versus .8% of patients with ANCs less than 10,000 cells/mm3 (95% CI .5, 1.2%). When tested on the validation set, the model performed similarly.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Independent predictors of OPB in children 3 to 36 months of age with temperatures of 39 degrees C or higher treated as outpatients include ANC, temperature, and age younger than 2 years. These predictors may be used to develop clinical strategies to limit laboratory testing and antibiotic administration to those children at greatest risk of OPB.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, University of California, Davis School of Medicine, USA. nkuppermann@ucdavis.edu
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Kuppermann
authors.forename: G R
authors.initials: GR
authors.lastname: Fleisher
authors.forename: D M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Jaffe
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000554:Ambulatory Care Facilities; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage; D016470:Bacteremia / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy; D001772:Blood Cell Count; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005334:Fever / Q000382:microbiology*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D016015:Logistic Models; D011008:Pneumococcal Infections / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents