title: Progression to type 2 diabetes among high-risk groups in Kin-Chen, Kinmen. Exploring the natural history of type 2 diabetes.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To examine the natural history of 654 high-risk subjects (340 men and 314 women) with fasting hyperglycemia (first fasting plasma glucose [FPG] level 5.6-7.8 mmol/l) who also exhibited 2-h postload glucose concentrations < 11.1 mmol/l and an FPG level < 7.8 mmol/l in a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). We were particularly interested in comparing the likelihood of developing type 2 diabetes for those with persistent fasting hyperglycemia (PFH), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and normal glucose tolerance (NGT). PFH is a relatively new definition, and those with PFH used to be defined as NGT according to WHO criteria.
  
  
  METHODS
  Subjects were located in a 1992-1994 community-based population survey and followed up and reexamined during 1995-1996. An OGTT was used to determine who had progressed to type 2 diabetes. Risk factors predictive of subsequent progression to type 2 diabetes were determined by comparing baseline variables from the 1992-1994 survey with data of those who had or had not progressed to type 2 diabetes in 1995-1996.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of 654 high-risk subjects screened in the baseline survey, 481 (73.5%, 255 men and 226 women) were followed up. Of these, 8.1% had progressed to diabetes (4.1% progression/year, 95% CI 2.3-5.9). Of 131 baseline IGT subjects, 17.6% progressed to diabetes (8.8% progression/year, 6.3-11.3), but only 7.4% of 95 PFH subjects (3.7% progression/year, 2.0-5.4) and 3.5% of 255 NGT subjects (1.8% progression/year, 0.1-3.0) progressed to diabetes.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The rates of progression to type 2 diabetes were lowest from the NGT subgroup, highest from the IGT group, with the PFH group in the middle, suggesting that PFH might be a transitional condition that precedes IGT and diabetes. Other significant predictors of subsequent diabetes were baseline BMI, baseline hyperuricemia, baseline FPG, and 2-h plasma glucose concentration.
authors.affiliation: Community Medicine Research Center, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C. pschou@ym.edu.tw
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Chou
authors.forename: C L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: G S
authors.initials: GS
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.forename: S T
authors.initials: ST
authors.lastname: Tsai
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism; D001824:Body Constitution; D015992:Body Mass Index; D008076:Cholesterol, HDL / Q000097:blood; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000097:blood / Q000209:etiology; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018450:Disease Progression; D005215:Fasting; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D006943:Hyperglycemia / Q000097:blood; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009765:Obesity / Q000097:blood / Q000150:complications; D010139:Pacific Islands / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D014527:Uric Acid / Q000097:blood
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D008076:Cholesterol, HDL; D014527:Uric Acid