title: Temporal progression of alcohol dependence symptoms in the U.S. household population: results from the National Comorbidity Survey.
abstract: General population data are presented on patterns and predictors of temporal progression of alcohol dependence symptoms in the general population. The data come from the National Comorbidity Survey, a nationally representative general population survey of respondents ages 15-54. Lifetime symptom classes were estimated with latent class analysis (LCA). A 4-class LCA solution, including a 1st asymptomatic class and 3 progressively more serious symptomatic classes, was found to fit the data. Probability of initial symptom onset among drinkers was found to be highest in the 10-24 age range, to be higher among men than women, and to have increased dramatically in the past 4 decades. Age, gender, and cohort effects were less powerful in predicting symptom progression. A narrowing of the gender difference over time was due largely to a convergence in initial symptom onset among men and women ages 10-24. These results suggest that a rise in initial problems was more important than an increase in the transition from problems to dependence in accounting for the growing prevalence of alcohol dependence during the post-World War II years in the United States.
authors.affiliation: World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
authors.forename: C B
authors.initials: CB
authors.lastname: Nelson
authors.forename: A C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Heath
authors.forename: R C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Kessler
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000639:trends; D019973:Alcohol-Related Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002648:Child; D015897:Comorbidity; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology