The effect of changing sexual activity on HIV prevalence.
In a one-sex preferred mixing model, reductions in the rate of partner change by those with low sexual activity increase the average probability of HIV infection in the remaining pool of available partners. This increases prevalence among people with high activity, and since high activity people disproportionately influence the spread of HIV, may increase long-run prevalence in the population as a whole. Calculations using the model and survey data on sexual activity indicate that in low prevalence populations, many people have low enough activity that reductions in their activity might increase the endemic steady-state prevalance. If these results prove robust in more realistic models, they would support the case for targeting public health messages urging reduced sexual activity to high activity people.
Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge 01239, USA. kremer@mit.edu
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D003198:Computer Simulation; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D015995:Prevalence; D011634:Public Health; D012725:Sexual Behavior / Q000502:physiology* / Q000523:psychology; D012747:Sexual Partners; D013997:Time Factors; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology