Mathematical model for the AIDS epidemic's evolution in Romania.
The individuals are distributed in 9 risk groups (adults and children), in which an HIV transmission way is predominant. Taking into account a simplified graph of the HIV infection evolution, kinetic equations for the number of individuals from each risk group--situated in various stages of HIV infection--are written. The approximative solutions of these equations give us: the characteristic exponents of the temporal evolutions of the main and secondary local epidemics; the ratios Ci/Bi and Di/Bi of asymptomatically contaminated and dead (as consequence of AIDS)--versus symptomatically contaminated; the onset of local epidemics in various risk groups; the relative amplitude of the secondary local epidemics versus the main local ones.
Cristea
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Stefan S. Nicolau Institute of Virology, Bucharest, Romania.
Strauss
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D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004866:Equipment Contamination; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D019372:Orphanages; D012307:Risk Factors; D012383:Romania / Q000453:epidemiology; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D012922:Social Change; D014195:Travel