title: An assessment of US and Canadian smoking reduction objectives for the year 2000.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study assessed whether US and Canadian smoking reduction objectives for the year 2000 are attainable. The United States seeks to cut smoking in its population to 15%; the Canadian goal is 24%.
  
  
  METHODS
  Smoking data were obtained for the United States (1974-1994) and Canada (1970-1995) for the overall populations and several age-sex subpopulations. Analyses estimated trends, future prevalences, and the likelihood of goal attainment. Structural time-series models were used because of their ability to fit a variety of trends.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The findings indicate that smoking has been declining steadily since the 1970s, by approximately 0.7 percentage points a year, in both countries. Extrapolating these trends to the year 2000, the US prevalence will be 21% and the Canadian prevalence 24%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  If the current trends continue, the Canadian goal seems attainable, but the US goal does not. The US goal is reachable only for 65-to 80-year-olds, who already have low smoking prevalences. It appears that both countries must increase their commitment to population-based tobacco control.
authors.affiliation: Graduate School of Management, University of California, Irvine 92697, USA. cpechman@uci.edu
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Pechmann
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Dixon
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Layne
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002170:Canada / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006040:Goals; D006291:Health Policy / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D011336:Probability; D017678:Sex Distribution; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000639:trends*; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology