title: The fate of patients undergoing surveillance of small abdominal aortic aneurysms.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Increasing numbers of patients with small abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) are being diagnosed. The aim of this paper is to define the fate of those patients undergoing surveillance of small AAAs.
  
  
  METHODS
  U.K. district general hospital.
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective study has been carried out of all patients undergoing surveillance. At the time of the first consultation the patient was assessed, a Detsky score calculated and the referral source noted. End points of the study were elective repair of the aneurysm, aneurysm rupture or death of the patient.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Details of 267 patients were analysed. The referral source was general practitioner in 39%, patients with peripheral vascular disease in 32% and department of urology in 21%. None were referred from population screening. The cumulative 5-year risks of rupture, elective repair or non-AAA related deaths were 15%, 26% and 46% for all patients, 4%, 13% and 38% for patients initially presenting with AAA less than 4 cm diameter and 21%, 42% and 54% for patients presenting with an AAA 4-5.5 cm diameter. All but one of 11 patients whose aneurysm ruptured were unfit or had declined elective repair. There were 56 non-AAA related deaths, the majority due to cardiovascular causes. Those patients with low Detsky scores had a 5-year survival of 62%, those with high scores 44%. The age/sex matched survival or a normal population at 5 years in 80%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Overall the non-AAA related mortality was greater than the risks of rupture or elective repair. It is important to bear in mind the poor prognosis of this group of patients compared with a normal population when considering elective repair of small AAAs.
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Royal Berkshire Hospital, Reading, U.K.
authors.forename: R B
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: Galland
authors.forename: M S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Whiteley
authors.forename: T R
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: Magee
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D017544:Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D001019:Aortic Rupture / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D017558:Elective Surgical Procedures; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors