Young children's predictions of illness: failure to recognize probabilistic causation.
In this study preschool-age children made predictions for a set of salient probabilistic causes. Of interest was whether the children viewed outcomes of familiar causes of illness as definite or as probabilistic. In Experiment 1, children judged that a common cause would affect all members of a group in the same way. In Experiment 2, children believed they could definitely predict illness outcomes in a single case. These judgments contrasted with adults' variable and uncertain predictions. Children did recognize uncertainty in outcomes dependent on voluntary choices. Experiment 3 presented both high- and low-potency causes of illness. Children treated all causes of illness as nonprobabilistic. These results are discussed in the context of children's understanding of causal relations and the sources of variability.
Kalish
C W
CW
University of Wisconsin-Madison, 53706, USA. cwkalish@facstaff.wisc.edu
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D015984:Causality; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003210:Concept Formation; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011337:Probability Learning; D012803:Sick Role