title: Individual prognoses of long-term responses to antiretroviral treatment based on virological, immunological and pharmacological parameters measured during the first week under therapy.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To predict long-term (12 weeks or longer) virological responses to antiretroviral treatment from measurements made during the first few days on therapy.
  
  
  METHODS
  Forty-one HIV-1-infected children were treated with ritonavir for 12 weeks followed by triple drug combination treatment, and the kinetics of virus decay in plasma, ritonavir concentration and CD4 cell counts were measured. A robust multivariate pattern recognition method was used for prediction of the longterm virological responses.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The virus decay rate constants calculated from measurements of plasma viral RNA concentrations on the first, second, third, fourth and seventh day on therapy, the drug concentrations in the plasma on day seven, and the pretreatment levels of viral RNA and CD4 cell counts, correlated with long-term levels of plasma HIV-1 RNA. The combination of these parameters contained sufficient information for correct and robust prediction of the long-term response in 88% of the treated children. The predictions of individual responses were stable as demonstrated by a cross-validation analysis, which was highly statistically significant (r=0.87) and specific.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These results demonstrate that multiple parameters determine the response to antiretroviral therapy and offer a very early measure of individual long-term responses, suggesting that treatment could be optimized after few days of therapy.
authors.affiliation: HIV and AIDS Malignancy Branch, National Cancer Institute, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
authors.forename: B U
authors.initials: BU
authors.lastname: Mueller
authors.forename: S L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Zeichner
authors.forename: V A
authors.initials: VA
authors.lastname: Kuznetsov
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Heath-Chiozzi
authors.forename: P A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Pizzo
authors.forename: D S
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Dimitrov
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D016049:Didanosine / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000627:therapeutic use; D004359:Drug Therapy, Combination; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000276:immunology / Q000821:virology; D017320:HIV Protease Inhibitors / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000627:therapeutic use; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000235:genetics / Q000302:isolation & purification; D006801:Humans; D011379:Prognosis; D012367:RNA, Viral / Q000097:blood; D018894:Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000627:therapeutic use; D019438:Ritonavir / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000627:therapeutic use; D019562:Viral Load; D015215:Zidovudine / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000627:therapeutic use
chemical_list: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents; D017320:HIV Protease Inhibitors; D012367:RNA, Viral; D018894:Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors; D015215:Zidovudine; D016049:Didanosine; D019438:Ritonavir