Prediction of outcome in neurotic disorder: a 5-year prospective study.
BACKGROUND
There have been no previous studies of the outcome of different neurotic disorders in which a prospective group with original randomization to treatment have been followed up over a long period. Such studies are important in identifying the factors associated with good and poor outcome.


METHODS
A 5-year follow-up assessment was made of a cohort of 210 psychiatric out-patients seen in general practice psychiatric clinics with a DSM-III diagnosis of generalized anxiety disorder (71), panic disorder (74) or dysthymic disorder (65) and randomized to drug treatment, cognitive and behaviour therapy, and self-help. A total of 182 of the patients (87%) were assessed after 5 years by examination of hospital and GP records using a standardized procedure and outcome determined with a four-point outcome scale.


RESULTS
One hundred and seven (60%) of the patients had a favourable outcome but the remainder continued to be handicapped either intermittently or continuously throughout the 5-year period. Analysis of the value of initial data in predicting outcome using polychotomous step-wise logistic regression revealed that five variables were significant predictors of poor prognosis: older age; recurrent episodes; the presence of personality disorder at entry; general neurotic syndrome at entry; and symptom severity after 10 weeks. The initial DSM diagnosis and original treatment given, together with ten other variables, were of no predictive value.


CONCLUSIONS
The long-term outcome of neurotic disorder is better predicted by age, personality and recency of onset than by other clinical variables with the exception of initial response to treatment.
Seivewright
H
H
Division of Neuroscience and Psychological Medicine, Imperial College School of Medicine, London.
Tyrer
P
P
Johnson
T
T
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000553:Ambulatory Care; D001008:Anxiety Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000628:therapy; D001521:Behavior Therapy; D019263:Dysthymic Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000628:therapy; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D009497:Neurotic Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000628:therapy*; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D016584:Panic Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000628:therapy; D010554:Personality Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000628:therapy; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011619:Psychotropic Drugs / Q000627:therapeutic use; D012657:Self-Help Groups; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013577:Syndrome; D016896:Treatment Outcome
D011619:Psychotropic Drugs