title: Value of serial troponin T measures for early and late risk stratification in patients with acute coronary syndromes. The GUSTO-IIa Investigators.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The baseline cardiac troponin T (cTnT) level strongly predicts short-term mortality in acute coronary syndromes, but the added value of later measures to predict short- and long-term outcome and in the context of baseline clinical characteristics is unclear.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Relations between baseline, peak, and 8- and 16-hour (late) cTnT results and outcomes were assessed in 734 patients in a GUSTO-IIa substudy. Proportional-hazards models assessed the prognostic information gained from late cTnT when added to a mortality model containing the baseline cTnT result and clinical factors. At baseline, 260 patients were cTnT-positive (>0.1 ng/mL), 323 became positive later, and 151 remained negative (</=0.1 ng/mL). Mortality at 30 days was 10% in the baseline-positive group, 5% in late-positive patients, and 0% in negative patients. After adjustment for baseline characteristics, any positive cTnT result predicted 30-day mortality (baseline, chi2=8.96, P=0.0113; 8-hour, chi2=6.51, P=0.0107; 16-hour, chi2=8.40, P=0.0038). Both the 8- and the 16-hour results added to the strength of the baseline result (baseline+8-hour, chi2=12.04, P=0.0072; baseline+16-hour, chi2=13.52, P=0.0036). Only age and ST-segment elevation were stronger predictors of 30-day mortality than baseline cTnT; results were similar for prediction of 1-year mortality. Most of the mortality difference between cTnT-positive and -negative patients occurred within the first 30 days.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The cTnT level is a strong, independent predictor of short-term outcome in acute coronary syndromes. The addition of later samples to a baseline level is useful to evaluate the risk of serious cardiac events.
authors.affiliation: Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, NC, USA. newby001@mc.duke.edu
authors.forename: L K
authors.initials: LK
authors.lastname: Newby
authors.forename: R H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Christenson
authors.forename: E M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Ohman
authors.forename: P W
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Armstrong
authors.forename: T D
authors.initials: TD
authors.lastname: Thompson
authors.forename: K L
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: C W
authors.initials: CW
authors.lastname: Hamm
authors.forename: H A
authors.initials: HA
authors.lastname: Katus
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Cianciolo
authors.forename: C B
authors.initials: CB
authors.lastname: Granger
authors.forename: E J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Topol
authors.forename: R M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Califf
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D000368:Aged; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008955:Models, Cardiovascular; D009206:Myocardium / Q000378:metabolism*; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013997:Time Factors; D020107:Troponin T / Q000378:metabolism*
chemical_list: D020107:Troponin T