Can we predict the future evolution of anesthesiology workforce in Belgium?
Two models are proposed to predict the evolution of anesthesiology workforce over the next 20 years. Each model features various scenarios according to different assumptions related to future numbers of female anesthetists, working hours, or regulations for postgraduates' working for conditions. However the main uncertainties derive from the unknown evolution of demands. Despite their differences both models agree on several important conclusions: a 13 to 14% shortage of anesthesiologists currently exists to satisfy O.R. demands, this shortage will decrease over the next ten years, and after 2010 a new shortage could arise under the combined pressure of the numerus clausus, of the number of female anesthesiologists and of the aging of the still young population of anesthesiologists.
Baele
P
P
Department of Anesthesiology, Cliniques Universitaires Saint-Luc, Brussels, Belgium.
Dercq
J P
JP
Smets
D
D
Somer
A
A
Desantoine
D
D
D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000776:Anesthesiology / Q000193:education / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D001530:Belgium; D004503:Education, Medical, Graduate / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007396:Internship and Residency / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009873:Operating Rooms / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D010820:Physicians / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000600:supply & distribution; D012737:Sex Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D000078329:Workforce; D016526:Workload