title: Serum alpha-fetoprotein surge after the initiation of chemotherapy for non-seminomatous testicular cancer has an adverse prognostic significance.
abstract: It has been recognized that the tumour markers alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) may show a transient elevation after the initiation of chemotherapy in non-seminomatous testicular cancer. We investigated the prognostic importance of these so-called marker surges in a cohort of patients treated with cisplatin combination chemotherapy between 1983 and 1991. A total of 669 patients were studied. Of 352 patients who had an elevated AFP at the start of treatment and for whom we had data at both day 1 and day 8, 101 (29%) had a surge. Of 317 patients for whom we had data for HCG, 80 patients (25%) had a surge. It was found that an AFP surge was a strong adverse prognostic factor for progression [hazard ratio (HR) 2.28, P=0.005]. There was no statistically significant difference in survival (HR 1.65, P=0.13). There was no prognostic significance of a HCG surge, either for progression or for survival. To investigate whether a surge was an independent prognostic factor for progression and survival, multivariate Cox regression models were fitted using the independent prognostic factors for progression and survival and the surge/decline variable. An AFP surge was retained in the final model for progression. A HCG surge was of no prognostic importance for progression or survival. We conclude that an AFP surge has an adverse prognostic significance, independent of pretreatment characteristics.
authors.affiliation: Rotterdam Cancer Institute and University Hospital, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: de Wit
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Collette
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Sylvester
authors.forename: P H
authors.initials: PH
authors.lastname: de Mulder
authors.forename: D T
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Sleijfer
authors.forename: W W
authors.initials: WW
authors.lastname: ten Bokkel Huinink
authors.forename: S B
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Kaye
authors.forename: A T
authors.initials: AT
authors.lastname: van Oosterom
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Boven
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Stoter
mesh_terms: D000970:Antineoplastic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D000971:Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols / Q000627:therapeutic use; D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor / Q000032:analysis*; D006063:Chorionic Gonadotropin / Q000032:analysis*; D002945:Cisplatin / Q000627:therapeutic use; D018450:Disease Progression; D018237:Germinoma / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000473:pathology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013736:Testicular Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000473:pathology*; D000509:alpha-Fetoproteins / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D000970:Antineoplastic Agents; D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor; D006063:Chorionic Gonadotropin; D000509:alpha-Fetoproteins; D002945:Cisplatin