title: Obstacle course performance and risk of falling in community-dwelling elderly persons.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the efficacy of obstacle course performance scores in predicting persons at risk for falls, after adjusting for age, sociodemographic, health-status, and physiologic variables.
  
  
  METHODS
  Correlational descriptive study design utilizing a logistic regression model.
  
  
  METHODS
  Community setting.
  
  
  METHODS
  A convenience sample of 352 community-dwelling elderly individuals at sites in a metropolitan area. MAIN CRITERION MEASURE: Number of falls reported prospectively during a 2-year follow-up period.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Obstacle course performance, fall history, symptoms of balance dysfunction, and activity level distinguished those who fell and those who did not 12 and 18 months later. At 24 months, range of motion and number of medications also were significant. In multivariate logistic regression, only history of a fall was a significant predictor of future falling at 12 and 18 months; at 24 months, the presence of balance dysfunction symptoms was the significant predictor of those who fell.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The obstacle course, as a predictor of future falls, is not superior to the question of whether or not an individual has fallen in the previous year, and is not recommended to predict future falls. The obstacle course may be better as a short-term indicator of response to a rehabilitation program for balance and mobility.
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System, Little Rock 72114, USA.
authors.forename: K M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Means
authors.forename: D E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Rodell
authors.forename: P S
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: O'Sullivan
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D005080:Exercise Test / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006304:Health Status; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires