Impact of the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic on mortality among adults with tuberculosis in rural South Africa, 1991-1995.
METHODS
In the Hlabisa district tuberculosis programme, South Africa, the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among adults with tuberculosis increased from 36.0% in 1993 to 65.9% in 1997, and the annual tuberculosis caseload increased from 321 in 1991 to 1250 in 1996.


OBJECTIVE
To examine the impact of the HIV epidemic on mortality among adults with tuberculosis from 1991 to 1995.


METHODS
Data were extracted from the control programme database. As the programme started in July 1991, data for this year were combined with those for 1992.


RESULTS
All-cause mortality among all those diagnosed with tuberculosis increased by 45.6%, from 9.2% (55/599) in 1991/92 to 13.4% (96/714) in 1995 (P = 0.02). Among smear-positive patients only, mortality increased by 134%, from 4.4% to 10.3% (P = 0.003). The case-fatality rate (CFR) increased in most age groups of both sexes, the largest increase (157.5%) being among women aged 15-34 years. CFR was highest among those with smear-negative disease (24.7% in 1995). In multifactorial analysis, independent risk factors for mortality were increasing age (P = 0.0001), HIV infection (odds ratio [OR] 3.5, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 2.3-5.4), smear-negative disease (OR 2.5, 95%CI 1.8-3.5), and diagnosis in 1995 vs 1991/92 (OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.2-2.7). Mortality among the HIV infected continued to accrue throughout treatment, whereas non-HIV-infected patients that died did so early in treatment.


CONCLUSIONS
The HIV epidemic is increasing tuberculosis all-cause mortality. As well as having a direct effect on individuals, increased caseloads due to HIV may also contribute to increased mortality by reducing the health system's ability to provide adequate care.
Connolly
C
C
Centre for Epidemiological Research in Southern Africa, South African Medical Research Council, Hlabisa.
Davies
G R
GR
Wilkinson
D
D
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D012424:Rural Population; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D015996:Survival Rate; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality*