title: From patterns to processes: phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle.
abstract: Across the boreal forest of North America, lynx populations undergo 10-year cycles. Analysis of 21 time series from 1821 to the present demonstrates that these fluctuations are generated by nonlinear processes with regulatory delays. Trophic interactions between lynx and hares cause delayed density-dependent regulation of lynx population growth. The nonlinearity, in contrast, appears to arise from phase dependencies in hunting success by lynx through the cycle. Using a combined approach of empirical, statistical, and mathematical modeling, we highlight how shifts in trophic interactions between the lynx and the hare generate the nonlinear process primarily by shifting functional response curves during the increase and the decrease phases.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Advanced Study, The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Drammensveien 78, N-0271 Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: N C
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Stenseth
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Falck
authors.forename: K S
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Chan
authors.forename: O N
authors.initials: ON
authors.lastname: Bjørnstad
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: O'Donoghue
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Tong
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Boonstra
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Boutin
authors.forename: C J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Krebs
authors.forename: N G
authors.initials: NG
authors.lastname: Yoccoz
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002170:Canada; D002335:Carnivora; D017753:Ecosystem; D005843:Geography; D007793:Lagomorpha; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011156:Population Density