Insurance effects on US medical spending (1960-1993).
Regression results show that nearly half of 1960-1993 growth in real per capita medical spending and almost two-thirds of its 1983-1993 growth were due to ever-increasing levels of insurance coverage (the spending portion paid by third parties). Growth in coverage may have played a minor part as well; we would not rule out the standard finding that it has had a positive but relatively small effect. Viewed from a different perspective, the results imply that about two-thirds of 1960-1993 spending growth came via cost-increasing advances in medical technology resulting from: (1) commercial research and development induced by coverage levels and (2) noncommercial medical research. The remaining one-third, was due to standard factors: age-sex mix changes, income growth and coverage growth (the latter playing a small but indeterminate part).
Peden
E A
EA
Office of Strategic Planning, Health Care Financing Administration, Baltimore, MD 21244, USA.
Freeland
M S
MS
D000367:Age Factors; D005260:Female; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D019458:Insurance Coverage / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D007348:Insurance, Health / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D007349:Insurance, Health, Reimbursement / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D008297:Male; D013677:Medical Laboratory Science / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D017059:Models, Econometric; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012106:Research / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D012737:Sex Factors; D014481:United States