[Predictive risk factors for progression to cirrhosis in early stage alcoholic liver disease].
OBJECTIVE
To assess the risk factors of cirrhosis in early stage alcoholic liver disease.


METHODS
We investigated 83 heavy drinkers (60 males and 23 females) in whom the first of two liver biopsies showed normal or pure alcoholic fatty liver.


RESULTS
When the six following variables: sex, age, delay between the first and last biopsy, total duration of alcohol consumption before the first biopsy, daily alcohol consumption for the last 5 years before the first biopsy and the extent of fatty liver in the first biopsy, were considered together in stepwise regression analysis, the delay between the first and last biopsy (p < 0.0001), sex (P < 0.004) and the extent of fatty liver in the first biopsy (P < 0.06) significantly improved the prediction of cirrhosis. The odds ratio of cirrhosis for a women was 19.1 (confidence interval 95% [1.85-197]). The odds ratio for cirrhosis for a percentage of fatty liver > or = 5/10 was 7.4 (confidence interval 95% [1-92]).


CONCLUSIONS
With the same delay between two liver biopsies, the female sex and the extent of fatty liver are two independent risk factors for the development of cirrhosis in heavy drinkers.
Service d'Hépato-Gastroentérologie, Hôpital Antoine-Béclère Clamart.
V
V
Giraud
S
S
Naveau
A
A
Balian
E
E
Belda
F
F
Capron
G
G
Lemaigre
J C
JC
Chaput
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000150:complications*; D001706:Biopsy; D018450:Disease Progression; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D005235:Fatty Liver, Alcoholic / Q000209:etiology* / Q000473:pathology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008104:Liver Cirrhosis, Alcoholic / Q000209:etiology* / Q000473:pathology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D013997:Time Factors