Use of predictive probabilities in phase II and phase III clinical trials.
Predictive probability is particularly useful in aiding a decision-making process related to drug development. This is especially true for decisions occurring as the result of interim analyses of clinical trials. Examples of clinical trial applications of Bayesian predictive probability and the use of the beta-binomial distribution are described.
Johns
D
D
Eli Lilly and Company, Lilly Corporate Center, Indianapolis, Indiana 46285, USA.
Andersen
J S
JS
D001499:Bayes Theorem; D016010:Binomial Distribution; D017322:Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D017326:Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003657:Decision Making; D004305:Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; D004341:Drug Evaluation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans