Forecasting the adoption of new medical technology using the Bass model.
A mathematical model, the Bass model, was used to forecast the adoption of new medical technology based on durable equipment. When the model was applied to five successful medical technologies, actual unit sales were predicted for three. The technologies investigated are computed tomography (CT scan), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), ultrasound, hemodialysis, and lithotripsy. Because unit sales data for dialysis and ultrasound could not be obtained or estimated from secondary sources for the years immediately after market entry, application of the Bass model produced questionable results for those technologies. However, results for CT scan, MRI, and lithotripsy suggest that this model can be used to predict the adoption of new medical technology based on durable equipment when annual unit sales data can be estimated for the period immediately after market entry.
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D003625:Data Collection; D003952:Diagnostic Imaging / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004059:Diffusion of Innovation; D004389:Durable Medical Equipment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D006302:Health Services Research; D007221:Industry / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008096:Lithotripsy / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015233:Models, Statistical; D006435:Renal Dialysis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D013673:Technology Assessment, Biomedical / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014481:United States