title: Pitfalls of inferring annual mortality from inspection of published survival curves.
abstract: In many FU articles currently published, results are given primarily in the form of graphs of survival curves, rather than in the form of life table data. Sometimes the authors may comment on the slope of the survival curve as though it were equal to the annual mortality rate (after reversal of the minus sign to a plus sign). Even if no comment of this sort is made, medical directors and underwriters may be tempted to think along similar lines in trying to interpret the significance of the survival curve in terms of mortality. However it is a very serious error of life table methodology to conceive of mortality rate as equal to the negative slope of the survival curve. The nature of the error is demonstrated in this article. An annual mortality rate derived from the survival curve actually depends on two variables: a quotient with the negative slope (sign reversed), delta P/ delta as the numerator, and the survival rate, P, itself as the denominator. The implications of this relationship are discussed. If there are two "parallel" survival curves with the same slope at a given time duration, the lower curve will have a higher mortality rate than the upper curve. A constant slope with increasing duration means that the annual mortality rate also increases with duration. Some characteristics of high initial mortality are also discussed and their relation to different units of FU time.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
authors.forename: R B
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: Singer
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D015993:Life Tables; D011336:Probability; D015996:Survival Rate; D013997:Time Factors