The quantity/quality of children hypothesis in developing countries: testing by considering some demographic experiences in China, India and Africa.
Initially a general regression equation is estimated, making use of cross-country data, relating the level of the total fertility rate to a range of variables, including the level of per capita real income. There is a statistically significant negative relationship between the level of the total fertility rate and real income per capita. Once the theory of the quantity-cum-quality of children hypothesis is set out formally, and in a flexible form, it is clear that this statistical relationship is not inconsistent with this theory. However, this relationship is not a strong, or convincing, test of this hypothesis. To provide more satisfactory tests of this hypothesis, additional relevant information from various developing countries is used. Information on recent demographic changes in China provides a comparatively powerful, direct test of the theory. More indirect tests of the theory are provided by drawing on data for India in the 1960s, and for sub-Saharan African countries in the 1980s and early 1990s. These various tests suggest that the quantity-cum-quality hypothesis, in its flexible form, appears to explain some of the changes in fertility rates observed in various developing countries in recent decades.
Martina
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Department of Edonomic History, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017954:Africa South of the Sahara; D001723:Birth Rate / Q000639:trends*; D002681:China; D003431:Cross-Cultural Comparison; D005260:Female; D019456:Health Transition; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income; D007194:India; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012044:Regression Analysis