title: Health care 2015: flight of the butterfly.
abstract: Projecting out to the year 2015 sounds presumptuous. Who can predict that far ahead? Perhaps no one can. Social and organizational arrangements come slowly. It takes five years or so to implement simple concepts, sometimes decades for more radical changes. Once you have the ideas in tangible form, it can take another five years to get it working right. Early adopters bring others into the movement and, over 15-25 years, new directions dominate. It takes at least a generation of new practitioners to take on the new values and methods so what is likely to dominate in 2015 is beginning to be taken somewhat seriously as the successor movement to our current fad with externally imposed managed care. Put another way, entire generations of people will resist new ideas, making implementation unlikely until their control fades and a new generation takes the helm. The exciting challenge for the observer is to address the issue of where health is and should be going. Both are difficult challenges. Agreeing on what is important and what is not represents a competitive challenge. How do we perceive the world? Surely our value sets will color what we see. Who is not predisposed to select a future where they fit and their pet theories are likely to become reality. For these and other reasons, it is probably easier to agree on what we would like to see happen in the future than on what is happening. Unfortunately, unless we see the world as it is, we are less likely to be able to shift it in a direction we would like to see.
authors.affiliation: Strategic Management Services, Inc., Tucson, AZ 85748, USA.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Brown
mesh_terms: D003695:Delivery of Health Care / Q000639:trends*; D004059:Diffusion of Innovation; D005544:Forecasting; D005582:Foundations; D006754:Hospital Restructuring / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D006777:Hospitals, Proprietary / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D007449:Investments; D008329:Managed Care Programs / Q000639:trends; D011787:Quality of Health Care; D012922:Social Change; D014481:United States