A mathematical model predicting anti-hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBs) decay after vaccination against hepatitis B.
The determination of serum levels of antibodies against hepatitis B virus surface antigen (anti-HBs) after hepatitis B vaccination is currently the only simple test available to predict the decay of protection and to plan the administration of booster doses. A total of 3085 vaccine recipients of plasma-derived and recombinant vaccine have been followed for 10 years to determine the kinetics of anti-HBs production and to construct a mathematical model which could efficiently predict the anti-HBs level decline. The anti-HBs peak level was reached 68 days after the last dose of recombinant vaccine and 138 days after the last dose of plasma-derived vaccines. The age of vaccinees negatively influenced the anti-HBs levels and also the time necessary to reach the anti-HBs peak. A bilogarithmic mathematical model (log10 level, log10 time) of anti-HBs decay has been constructed on a sample of recombinant vaccine recipients and subsequently validated on different samples of recombinant or plasma-derived vaccine recipients. Age, gender, type of vaccine (recombinant or plasma-derived), number of vaccine doses (three or four) did not influence the mathematical model of antibody decay. The program can be downloaded at the site: http:@www2.stat.unibo.it/palareti/vaccine.htm . Introducing an anti-HBs determination obtained after the peak, the program calculates a prediction of individual anti-HBs decline and allows planning of an efficient booster policy.
Honorati
M C
MC
Laboratorio di Immunologia e Genetica, Istituto di Ricerca Codivilla Putti-I.O.R., Bologna, Italy.
Palareti
A
A
Dolzani
P
P
Busachi
C A
CA
Rizzoli
R
R
Facchini
A
A
D000465:Algorithms; D015331:Cohort Studies; D006509:Hepatitis B / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006510:Hepatitis B Antibodies / Q000097:blood / Q000378:metabolism*; D006514:Hepatitis B Surface Antigens / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D017325:Hepatitis B Vaccines / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D006801:Humans; D007700:Kinetics; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014611:Vaccination
D006510:Hepatitis B Antibodies; D006514:Hepatitis B Surface Antigens; D017325:Hepatitis B Vaccines