title: Air pollution statistics in policy applications.
abstract: This review of the role of air pollution statistics in environmental policy sets the UK current controls of sulfur emissions for health and environmental effects in a historical context. The use of critical loads and levels is discussed. The role of air pollution monitoring data in assessing achievement of a health effects air quality standard or predicting exceedance of a critical level or critical load on a national basis is reviewed with the level of monitoring and the interpolation of concentration data identified as important issues. The problems of spatial scale, the scarcity of data for model validation and the use of trends to identify model inadequacy are illustrated. The current statistical challenges in understanding air pollution processes and defining appropriate policies include quantification of uncertainty within complex models, problems of spatial scale and model validation, and development of monitoring strategies which balance the spatial (more sites) and temporal (better process understanding) aspects of the science alongside the balance between policy desire and monitoring practicality. An appropriate statistical goal is development of methodology to ensure appropriate derived data with sufficient accuracy are used for measuring policy achievement.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Edinburgh Research Station, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK.
authors.forename: R I
authors.initials: RI
authors.lastname: Smith
mesh_terms: D000397:Air Pollution / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000592:standards; D006291:Health Policy / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical