title: Predicting advanced proximal colonic neoplasia with screening sigmoidoscopy.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Indications are not well defined for follow-up colonoscopy for all patients with distal colonic tubular adenomas (TAs) found at screening sigmoidoscopy.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To determine whether distal adenoma size, number, and villous histology, along with family history and age, are predictors of advanced proximal colonic neoplasia.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cross-sectional analysis conducted between January 1, 1994, and December 31, 1995.
  
  
  METHODS
  Large group-model health maintenance organization in northern California.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 2972 asymptomatic subjects aged 50 years or older undergoing colonoscopy as follow-up to a screening sigmoidoscopy.
  
  
  METHODS
  Based on sigmoidoscopy, colonoscopy, and pathology reports, occurrence of advanced proximal neoplasia, defined as adenocarcinoma or TAs 1 cm or larger or with villous features or severe dysplasia located beyond sigmoidoscopic view.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The prevalence of advanced proximal neoplasia was similar among patients with no TAs at sigmoidoscopy, those with TAs less than 1 cm in diameter, and those with TAs 1 cm in diameter or larger (prevalence, 5.3%, 5.5%, and 5.6%, respectively). Of patients with a distal tubulovillous or villous adenoma, 12.1% had advanced proximal neoplasia. In multivariate analyses, having a distal tubulovillous adenoma or villous adenoma was the strongest predictor of advanced proximal neoplasia (odds ratio, 2.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.69-3.14). Age of 65 years or older, having more than 1 adenoma, and a positive family history of colorectal cancer were also significant predictors. Distal adenoma size was not a significant predictor in any multivariate analyses.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Advanced proximal neoplasia is not uncommon in subjects with or without distal TAs, but subjects with advanced distal histology and those older than 65 years are at increased risk. Age-specific screening using sigmoidoscopy starting at ages 50 to 55 years and colonoscopy after age 65 years may be justified.
authors.affiliation: Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program, Oakland, Calif, USA. trl@itsa.ucsf.edu
authors.forename: T R
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: Levin
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Palitz
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Grossman
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Conell
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Finkler
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ackerson
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Rumore
authors.forename: J V
authors.initials: JV
authors.lastname: Selby
mesh_terms: D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000473:pathology*; D000236:Adenoma / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000473:pathology*; D000368:Aged; D000465:Algorithms; D003110:Colonic Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000473:pathology*; D003113:Colonoscopy; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D012812:Sigmoidoscopy